2nd July 2026
The media thinks government debt will cause the next financial crash.
I think they’re looking in entirely the wrong place.
The UK government cannot run out of pounds to repay debt denominated in pounds, so government debt is not where I believe the real systemic risk now lies. Instead, I think the danger has been quietly building in US stock markets, where global investor concentration is now higher than at any point in modern history.
Foreign investors now own around $22 trillion of US shares. Pension funds, insurance companies and investment funds across the world have become increasingly dependent upon rising American stock prices. The AI boom has accelerated this trend, drawing ever more money into a relatively small number of companies and creating a level of concentration that should concern us all.
If those markets suffer a major correction, the consequences will not be confined to the United States. The effects could spread rapidly through pension funds, household savings, and banks and financial institutions around the world, including here in the UK.
In this video I explain:
Why government debt is not the financial threat many people imagine
where I think the real systemic financial risk now lies
Why US stock markets have become so dominant
how AI investment has fuelled an unprecedented concentration of capital
Why UK pension funds are much more exposed than many people realise
Why the next financial crisis, if it comes, is likely to look very different from 2008
What this could mean for your savings, your pension and the wider economy.
Whether you agree with my analysis or not, these are risks that deserve far more attention than they are currently receiving.