3rd July 2026
Donald Trump has declared a national emergency over fertilizer supplies in the United States and temporarily suspended import duties on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco to prevent a domestic food‑production crisis.
This move is meant to stabilise U.S. crop yields and prevent sharp food‑price spikes.
The UK is not directly affected by Trump’s order, but British experts warn that the UK is already vulnerable to food‑system shocks, including fertilizer disruptions, global conflict, and extreme weather.
What Trump Has Declared in the U.S.
1. National Emergency Over Fertilizer Supply
Trump declared an emergency due to threats to the availability of phosphate fertilizer — a critical agricultural input for crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat.
2. Suspension of Duties on Moroccan Fertilizer
He authorised an eight‑month suspension of anti‑dumping and countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco.
This is intended to:
Increase supply
Reduce costs
Prevent food‑production disruption
Stabilise domestic food prices
Morocco holds 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves, making it a key supplier.
3. Why the U.S. Is Doing This
Global fertilizer supply chains have been disrupted by:
Conflicts in fertilizer‑producing regions
Trade actions by major producers
War‑related shipping disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz)
These disruptions have caused rapid price increases and procurement challenges for U.S. farmers.
4. Expected Impact in the U.S.
According to USDA analysis:
Fertilizer prices may drop by ~22%
Farmers could save ~$1.82 billion annually
More stable food production heading into planting seasons
Does This Affect the UK?
Trump’s emergency declaration does not directly change UK fertilizer imports, but the underlying global issues absolutely do.
UK Vulnerabilities Identified by Experts
Multiple UK studies warn that Britain is dangerously exposed to food‑system shocks — including fertilizer shortages, global conflict, and extreme weather.
Key risks for the UK[b/]
Price spikes in global fertilizer markets
Reduced availability of key agricultural inputs
Higher food prices for households
Supply‑chain fragility due to “just‑in‑time” logistics
Dependence on imports rather than domestic production
Climate‑driven crop failures across Europe
Geopolitical instability affecting trade routes and fertilizer exports
Experts warn the UK is “sleepwalking into a food crisis” without structural reforms.
[b]Is the UK Ready for Shortages or Price Increases?
Short answer:
No — the UK is not fully prepared, according to multiple expert reports.
What the studies say
The UK food system is fragile, highly centralised, and vulnerable to shocks.
Sudden price hikes or shortages could escalate into instability or even unrest in worst‑case scenarios.
Low‑income households would be hit hardest by rising food costs.
The UK lacks a coherent long‑term food‑security strategy.
Recommended actions for the UK
Increase energy security (fertilizer production is energy‑intensive).
Diversify food supply chains.
Boost domestic agricultural production.
Build resilience against climate shocks and geopolitical disruptions.
What This Means for You in the UK
Even though Trump’s emergency declaration is U.S.-specific, it signals a global fertilizer and food‑supply problem that can spill over into UK markets.
Expect:
Higher food prices if global fertilizer costs rise
Potential shortages of certain imported foods
More volatility in agricultural markets
Pressure on UK farmers who already face high input costs
The UK is not in immediate crisis but experts agree it is not ready for a major shock.