Submitted by Bill Fernie
9th July 2026
A military strike in the Persian Gulf can raise heating oil prices in Caithness because the Strait of Hormuz carries 20–27% of the world’s crude oil and petroleum products. When that corridor is disrupted, global supply drops, prices spike, and rural areas like Caithness already paying a delivery premium feel the impact fastest and hardest.
Why Hormuz Matters to the Far North
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and a quarter of seaborne petroleum normally pass through this narrow waterway. When conflict erupts—strikes, sanctions, or naval confrontations—shipping slows or stops. In 2026, ship transits collapsed by 95%, from 129 per day to just six.
This isn’t a small disruption. It’s a global shockwave.
Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March 2026.
Brent crude jumped by 65% in a single month, hitting record highs.
Emergency reserves were drained to 40‑year lows, leaving markets fragile.
When the world loses that much oil, every country pays more especially those far from refineries and distribution hubs.
How a Crisis in the Gulf Raises Heating Oil Prices in Caithness
Caithness is uniquely exposed to global oil volatility. Even in normal times, heating oil here costs more than the UK average due to distance, logistics, and limited competition. When global crude spikes, Caithness doesn’t just follow the trend—it amplifies it.
Global crude rises and UK wholesale kerosene rises
During the 2026 Hormuz crisis, Brent crude surged past $100–115 per barrel. UK heating oil followed with sharp increases, reaching 132p per litre nationally at the April peak. Scotland’s average sat even higher at 107p per litre in June 2026.
Rural delivery premiums magnify the pain
Caithness typically pays 15–25p per litre above the UK average for heating oil because every tanker travels hundreds of miles from Grangemouth or Inverness. When crude rises, this rural premium doesn’t disappear—it stacks on top.
Low inventories mean faster price adjustments
Rural suppliers hold smaller stocks. When wholesale prices spike, Caithness sees the increase sooner than cities with larger storage capacity.
Global fragility means any new strike hits harder
With strategic reserves depleted after the crisis, the world is now more vulnerable. Any fresh military strike—whether in Iran, the Gulf of Oman, or the wider region—could trigger a sharper and faster price spike than before.
What This Means for Caithness Households
Even if the Strait of Hormuz is thousands of miles away, Caithness heating oil prices are tied to it through global markets.
When Hormuz closes or becomes unsafe:
Crude prices jump immediately.
UK wholesale kerosene rises within days.
Rural areas like Caithness see increases within a week.
Prices can exceed £1.10–£1.20 per litre locally during severe disruptions.
This is why a single strike—on a refinery, a tanker, or a naval vessel—can push up your next heating oil delivery.
Why Caithness Is Hit Harder Than Most
Distance penalty: Every litre travels hundreds of miles.
Low competition: No supermarket fuel stations; few local suppliers.
High transport dependency: Rural trades, carers, and hauliers all rely on fuel.
Volatility sensitivity: Small inventories mean rapid price changes.
Caithness doesn’t just experience global oil shocks—it absorbs them early, fully, and for longer.
The New Reality: A Fragile Global Oil System
Even though the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened after a temporary US–Iran understanding, the underlying fragility remains:
Inventories are at multi‑decade lows.
Emergency reserves are depleted.
Middle Eastern production cuts remain deep.
Shipping insurance costs are elevated.
Any new strike could trigger another supply shock.
For Caithness, this means heating oil prices will remain highly sensitive to events in the Gulf for months—possibly years.
Final Thoughts
A military strike thousands of miles away might seem irrelevant to daily life in the Far North. But when that strike affects the Strait of Hormuz, it hits Caithness directly through global oil markets, rural delivery premiums, and fragile supply chains.
When Hormuz sneezes, Caithness catches the cold.