15th July 2026
Fertiliser prices are rising again driven by Middle East gas disruption, higher oil prices. Tightening global ammonia supply and the increases will begin showing up in UK and European food prices from late summer into autumn, with the full inflation impact landing in early 2027.
A full, structured explanation, with clear timelines and the reasons behind each stage.
Fertiliser prices are rising again — here’s why
The fertiliser market is tightly linked to natural gas, oil, and global shipping routes. All three are under pressure right now.
1. Middle East conflict has hit gas and LNG supply
Iranian retaliation and Gulf refinery/LNG shutdowns have disrupted:
Qatar’s LNG exports (the world’s largest supplier)
Gas‑processing plants in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
Fertiliser production — especially ammonia and urea — depends heavily on natural gas. When gas prices rise or supply tightens, fertiliser prices follow.
2. Oil prices rising above $85 are pushing up transport and production costs
Oil affects:
transport of fertiliser
diesel for farm machinery
global shipping costs
petrochemical feedstocks
Higher oil = higher fertiliser logistics costs.
3. Ammonia and urea prices have jumped
Latest market data shows:
Ammonia prices up 10–15% over the past month
Urea prices up 8–12%
DAP/MAP (phosphate fertilisers) rising 5–7%
Potash stable but trending upward
This is the early stage of a new price cycle.
4. Europe’s fertiliser production is still fragile
European fertiliser plants shut down during the 2022 gas crisis. Many reopened, but:
they remain highly sensitive to gas prices
they cannot ramp up quickly
they rely on imported ammonia
This means Europe cannot cushion global price spikes.
When will rising fertiliser prices show up in food prices?
Food inflation does not react instantly. It moves through a predictable timeline.
Stage 1 — Farmers pay more for fertiliser (now – July/August 2026)
Farmers buying fertiliser for:
autumn planting
winter crops
early spring 2027 sowing
are already facing higher costs.
Stage 2 — Higher production costs feed into crop prices (August–December 2026)
Crops most affected:
wheat
barley
oats
rapeseed
potatoes
vegetables grown in fertiliser‑intensive soils
Farmers begin raising contract prices for millers, processors, and wholesalers.
Stage 3 — Food processors pass costs to retailers (late 2026 – early 2027)
This affects:
bread
cereals
flour
vegetable oils
potatoes
animal feed (which then affects meat and dairy)
Processors typically adjust prices quarterly, so the increases show up gradually.
Stage 4 — Retail food inflation rises (January–April 2027)
Supermarkets adjust shelf prices after:
contract renewals
supply‑chain cost reviews
wholesale price changes
This is when consumers feel the full impact.
Which foods will rise first?
1. Bread, flour, cereals
Wheat is fertiliser‑intensive. Expect price rises by autumn 2026.
2. Potatoes and root vegetables
Scottish growers rely heavily on nitrogen fertiliser. Prices rise late 2026.
3. Meat and dairy
Higher fertiliser → higher feed costs → higher livestock costs.
Shows up early 2027.
4. Vegetable oils (rapeseed)
Likely increases late 2026.
5. Fresh vegetables
Especially fertiliser‑intensive crops grown in greenhouses.
Shows up winter 2026–27.
Why rural Scotland is especially exposed
Rural and island communities face:
higher transport costs
higher fertiliser use in poorer soils
higher diesel costs for machinery
fewer alternative suppliers
higher food‑transport costs into remote areas
This means fertiliser‑driven food inflation hits rural Scotland earlier and harder than cities.
Late Summer 2026 Onwards
Fertiliser prices are rising now due to Middle East energy disruption, higher oil prices, and tightening global ammonia supply. These increases will begin feeding into UK food prices from late summer 2026, with the full inflation impact landing in early 2027, especially in rural Scotland.