28th July 2026
Oil Price Falls Again: How Far Could Brent Crude Go?
The oil price has gone from $100 a barrel to around $88 in remarkably short order. The big question now is whether this is simply a correction — or the beginning of a much larger fall.
Brent crude has fallen by roughly 10% over just two trading sessions, with prices around $88 a barrel on Tuesday. That follows last week's brief move above the psychologically important $100 level.
The immediate reason is geopolitics.
The United States has paused strikes against Iran and there are hopes that talks could eventually produce a diplomatic solution. That has reduced fears of further disruption to oil supplies and shipping through the Middle East.
Could Brent fall below $80?
It certainly could.
The important point is that much of the recent rise in oil was a risk premium rather than a permanent change in the underlying balance between supply and demand.
Brent had previously fallen as low as around $72 a barrel in June, when fears surrounding the conflict eased and more tankers were able to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
That gives us an indication of what could happen if the current diplomatic pause develops into a lasting reduction in tensions.
A return to the $70–$80 range therefore cannot be ruled out.
But there is a big obstacle
The oil market is still extremely sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
The recent surge towards $100 was driven by concerns about disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks affecting alternative shipping routes.
If negotiations collapse, military action resumes or shipping through the region is disrupted again, oil could rise very rapidly.
That means the market is currently trading on political headlines as much as on conventional supply and demand.
What could push oil towards $70?
For prices to fall significantly below $80, several things would probably have to come together:
a sustained reduction in Middle East tensions;
normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz;
restoration of disrupted oil exports;
continued growth in global oil supply;
and relatively weak demand caused by slower economic growth.
If those conditions develop, the market could quickly begin to focus on the amount of oil available rather than the risk of shortages.
That could put considerable downward pressure on prices.
What about $60?
That is possible, but I would regard it as a more distant scenario rather than the most likely immediate destination.
The oil market has already shown how quickly prices can change. Brent was around $72 in June, climbed to $100 only weeks later and has now fallen back towards $88.
A return to the $60s would probably require not only geopolitical stability but also a significant deterioration in global oil demand or a substantial increase in supply.
The most likely outcome?
At present, I would expect volatility rather than a straight line downwards.
If the US-Iran situation continues to de-escalate, Brent could test $85 and then $80.
If the Strait of Hormuz returns to something approaching normal operation and there is no fresh geopolitical shock, the $70s become quite plausible.
But a renewed military escalation could send Brent back towards $100 surprisingly quickly.
For consumers in Britain, therefore, the encouraging news is that the immediate oil-price shock is unwinding.
For businesses and households that have been hit by expensive diesel, petrol and heating oil, every further $10 fall in Brent could eventually make a noticeable difference.
But there is an important lesson from the last few months:
Oil can fall much faster than it rises — but it can also turn around extraordinarily quickly.
For now, the direction is clearly down.
The question is whether Brent stops at $80, falls into the $70s, or eventually heads even lower.