29th July 2026
Oil prices have turned sharply upwards again, raising a question that seemed to be fading only a few days ago: could Brent crude be heading back towards $100 a barrel?
On Wednesday, 29 July, Brent crude rose by more than $3 a barrel to around $87.40, while US West Texas Intermediate crude moved above $82. The rise came after three consecutive days of falling prices.
The immediate reason is a renewed escalation in the conflict involving the United States and Iran.
The market had started to relax
Only two days ago, oil prices had fallen sharply as markets took some comfort from a pause in US attacks on Iran and hopes that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz might begin to stabilise.
That optimism has now been badly shaken.
Reports of an Iranian missile attack on US forces, followed by US and Saudi strikes against Iran-backed targets in Iraq, have reminded oil traders that the underlying threat to energy supplies has not disappeared.
And this is why oil prices can move so quickly.
The market does not have to wait for millions of barrels of oil to actually disappear.
If traders believe that supplies could be disrupted, they immediately begin pricing that risk into oil futures.
Hormuz remains the biggest concern
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the problem.
It is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, and any significant interruption would have consequences far beyond the Middle East.
The latest reports that shipping has again become caught up in the confrontation are therefore particularly worrying for the oil market.
The situation is complicated further by continuing risks around other shipping routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea.
This means the market is not simply asking whether there is enough oil in the world.
It is asking whether that oil can actually get to the countries that need it.
Falling US inventories add another push
There is also a more conventional supply factor behind today's rise.
US crude inventories reportedly fell by around 3.3 million barrels in the week ending 24 July. At a time when traders are already worried about supply disruption, falling stocks provide another reason to bid prices higher.
There is also speculation that OPEC+ could slow or pause further production increases from October.
That would remove some of the additional supply which the market had been expecting and could provide further support to prices.
Is $100 Brent really back in sight?
It is too early to say that $100 is inevitable.
There is actually a strong argument that oil prices could fall again if the latest military escalation proves short-lived and negotiations resume.
The US Energy Information Administration continues to expect global oil inventories to build later in 2026 as supply growth eventually exceeds consumption. If that happens, it would put downward pressure on prices.
But the important point is that the route to $100 has become considerably shorter.
Brent does not need to rise by another $30 or $40 to reach $100. From around $87, it would require an increase of roughly 14%.
That could happen surprisingly quickly if there were a serious and sustained interruption to oil shipments through the Gulf.
Why this matters in Scotland
For Scotland, particularly rural areas, the oil price is much more than a financial-market statistic.
A sustained rise would eventually feed into:
petrol and diesel prices;
heating oil;
fishing vessel fuel costs;
haulage and delivery charges;
agricultural costs;
food distribution;
aviation;
construction and other energy-intensive businesses.
The effect can also spread well beyond the price displayed on a petrol station sign.
If diesel becomes more expensive, transporting food, building materials and other goods becomes more expensive. Businesses then face a choice between absorbing the increase or passing it on to customers.
That can add to inflation even when the original increase came from events thousands of miles away.
The bigger danger is another energy shock
Today's oil price rise does not necessarily mean that another major energy crisis is beginning.
But it does demonstrate just how fragile the situation remains.
Oil had fallen sharply when markets believed the conflict was easing. Within days, renewed military action has pushed prices back upwards.
That tells us something important.
The oil market has not returned to normal. It is still carrying a substantial geopolitical risk premium.
If the latest confrontation settles down, Brent could fall again.
But if the Strait of Hormuz becomes seriously restricted, or if attacks spread to more oil infrastructure or shipping, the calculation changes very quickly.
And that is why $100 Brent is once again a realistic possibility rather than a distant scenario.
For households already struggling with high energy and living costs, another oil-price shock would be particularly unwelcome.
The next few days could therefore tell us a great deal about whether today's rise is simply another temporary spike — or the beginning of another sustained climb in energy prices.