1st August 2026
Bev Craig's victory in Manchester to become the new mayor: a relief for Labour, but not a landslide.
Bev Craig, Labour's candidate and former leader of Manchester City Council, won the Greater Manchester mayoralty after Andy Burnham left the role to move into national politics. She secured victory after second preferences were counted, defeating Reform UK's candidate.
However, there are important details:
Turnout was very low, around 25%, suggesting many voters remain disengaged from local and regional politics.
Reform UK still demonstrated that it can compete strongly even in areas historically dominated by Labour.
Labour held a major political stronghold, but the result does not mean previous pressures have disappeared.
So the message is mixed.
Labour can breathe more easily, but it cannot assume traditional support will automatically return.
Is this a sign of wider electoral change?
Possibly, but the bigger story is that British politics is becoming much less predictable.
For decades, many parts of Britain had fairly stable voting patterns:
Labour dominated many northern urban areas.
Conservatives dominated many rural and southern areas.
Smaller parties had limited influence.
That pattern has weakened.
The rise of Reform UK
One of the biggest changes has been the growth of Reform UK as a challenger to both main parties.
Its appeal has been strongest among voters concerned about:
Immigration.
Public services.
Tax levels.
Housing pressures.
Distrust of Westminster.
The important point is that Reform is not simply replacing the Conservatives. It is also competing in areas that historically voted Labour.
Greater Manchester demonstrated that even Labour heartlands are no longer completely secure.
Could there be more changes in future elections?
Yes, several trends suggest further disruption.
Traditional party loyalties are weakening
Many voters no longer feel permanently attached to one party.
They are increasingly willing to change their vote depending on:
The economy.
Public services.
Local issues.
Leadership.
Trust.
This creates more volatile elections.
Regional politics is becoming more important
The growth of elected mayors has changed British politics.
Figures such as:
Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester.
Sadiq Khan in London.
Other metro mayors.
have developed their own political identities separate from Westminster.
Regional leaders can sometimes become more popular than their own national parties.
Local elections may become warning signals
Local elections often act as a protest vote.
Voters may use them to express dissatisfaction without changing the national government.
However, when the same patterns repeat across several regions, parties start paying attention.
What does this mean for Scotland?
The situation in Scotland is different but there are similarities.
Scottish politics has already experienced major disruption:
The decline of Labour's dominance.
The rise of the SNP.
The changing fortunes of the Conservatives.
The emergence of Reform UK.
The issues that influence English voters also exist in Scotland:
Housing.
Public services.
Cost of living.
Immigration.
Energy costs.
Rural decline.
However, Scottish politics also has the additional factor of constitutional issues.
Are we moving towards a multi-party Britain?
That may be the biggest long-term change.
The old two-party system is under pressure.
A future election could see:
Labour strong in some cities.
Conservatives stronger in parts of England.
SNP continuing to dominate some Scottish areas.
Reform competing nationally.
Greens and Liberal Democrats influencing results in certain regions.
This means governments may find it harder to win broad majorities.
The bigger question
The most interesting issue is not whether Bev Craig's victory helps Labour.
It is whether voters are entering a period where every election becomes a contest for groups of floating voters rather than traditional party supporters.
The political map of Britain may increasingly resemble the economic changes we have discussed in previous articles:
Industrial areas changing.
Rural areas changing.
Younger and older voters having different priorities.
National and local identities becoming more important.