22nd August 2026
According to the Home Office, French police units prevented 185 small-boat crossing events between 27 April and 2 August, stopping more than 4,300 crossing attempts. The Government says that represents a prevention rate of 61% of all small-boat events during the period.
Those figures are certainly significant. But there is another number that deserves just as much attention.
How many people actually made it to Britain during the same period?
That is where the story becomes rather more complicated.
The Home Office's own statistics show that small-boat arrivals continued throughout the period covered by the new agreement. The Government publishes these figures separately from the French prevention figures, and it is important to remember that both sets of figures are provisional and can subsequently be revised.
The distinction matters because the headline figure of 4,300 people stopped can easily give the impression that the French operation is preventing a similar number of people from reaching Britain as are actually getting here.
That isn't the case.
The Government says that 61% of crossing events were prevented. That is not the same thing as saying that 61% of migrants who might otherwise have reached Britain were stopped.
A boat is an event. The number of people on that boat can vary considerably.
And that difference has become increasingly important as smugglers have adapted their methods.
The latest Government figures show that small boats were still arriving in Britain during August. In the week ending 16 August, for example, 405 migrants arrived in three boats, while French authorities prevented 270 migrants from crossing in 16 events.
That illustrates the problem with relying on a single headline percentage.
If we are trying to establish whether the policy is working, the question is not simply how many boats France stopped. It is how many people were prevented from reaching Britain, how many actually arrived and whether the overall number is falling sustainably.
There is some genuinely encouraging evidence for the Government.
Small-boat arrivals in 2026 have been running below the exceptionally high levels seen in previous years. The Government's statistics are updated regularly and provide a much more useful picture than individual announcements because they allow arrivals and French prevention activity to be considered together.
But that does not mean the problem has been solved.
The French operation has been stopping substantial numbers of potential crossings, yet people continue to make the journey successfully. And the fact that smugglers can change routes, launch points, boat sizes and tactics means that a successful intervention on the French coast does not necessarily translate directly into a permanent reduction in arrivals.
There is also a subtle issue with the Government's terminology.
The Home Office describes the 4,300 figure as “crossing attempts” stopped. Some of those attempts were stopped before a boat entered the water, some involved people being prevented from launching and others involved equipment being seized or groups being intercepted.
That is useful information about enforcement activity, but it should not be confused with 4,300 people who were physically intercepted while sailing towards Britain.
The Government itself says the French prevention statistics include people prevented from departing France, people returned to France and maritime equipment that was found.
This is why the most meaningful measure for the public is probably much simpler.
How many people arrived?
That is the number that ultimately tells us how many people successfully entered Britain by this route.
There is another reason for caution when comparing individual figures. The Home Office warns that the operational data are provisional and can change. Final figures are subsequently published in the quarterly immigration statistics after further quality assurance.
So it would be wrong to claim that every person stopped by France would otherwise have arrived in Britain. Equally, it would be wrong to suggest that the 4,300 prevented attempts represent the total scale of the problem.
What the latest figures really demonstrate is that France is stopping a considerable number of attempted crossings while a considerable number of people are still getting through.
That is a more complicated story than the Government's headline.
And perhaps that is exactly how the figures should be reported.
There is nothing wrong with the Government highlighting 185 boats stopped and more than 4,300 crossing attempts prevented. If those interventions are reducing dangerous Channel crossings and disrupting criminal smuggling gangs, they are important achievements.
But the public also needs the other side of the equation.
How many were stopped? How many arrived? And, most importantly, is the gap between the two getting smaller?
Those are the figures that will ultimately tell us whether the UK-France agreement is genuinely changing the Channel migration problem, rather than simply changing the number of boats that are stopped on the French coast.
The Government's latest announcement provides part of that answer.
It does not provide all of it.
What We don't Know
We know how many interventions France reports, but we do not appear to have a reliable published figure showing how many of the individuals stopped subsequently tried again.
In fact, the UK-France agreement itself recognises the possibility of repeat attempts. The amended agreement specifically defines a “situation of reiteration” as someone who has previously been removed from the UK to France and subsequently returns clandestinely to the UK. The agreement was amended in June 2026 specifically to deal with such repeat cases.
That is quite revealing.
It means that “stopped” does not necessarily mean “deterred”.
Someone can be stopped on a French beach today, have their boat destroyed or equipment confiscated, move somewhere else along the French coast tomorrow and try again. Unless authorities can identify that individual and track what happens afterwards, the 4,300 figure tells us that an attempt was interrupted — not that the person abandoned the intention to reach Britain.
There is a further complication. The Government's statistics are about events and people prevented, rather than unique individuals. If the same person makes three attempts and is stopped three times, how would that appear in the headline figures? Unless the data are linked to individual identities, it could potentially be counted as three interventions involving three “migrants”, rather than one migrant who tried three times.
I have not found published Home Office or French statistics that answer that question.
And this gives us an excellent additional angle for the article because it gets to the heart of what “success” actually means.
If France stops 4,300 attempts but some substantial proportion of those people simply try again, then the real measure of success should not be “How many attempts did we stop?”
It should be:
“How many people who were stopped never attempted the crossing again?”
At present, we don't appear to have that number.
Interestingly, the new agreement's provisions on repeat offenders suggest that the governments themselves recognise the problem. The revised arrangement explicitly provides for people who have previously been transferred to France subsequently returning to the UK clandestinely, with a mechanism for their readmission to France.
So I would definitely add this to the article. It could make the argument considerably stronger without making an assumption that people are necessarily trying again.
The honest conclusion is:
We simply don't know how many of the 4,300 people stopped have been genuinely deterred, and how many have merely had their first attempt interrupted.
That is a question worth asking the Home Office — because without that information, the Government's 4,300 figure measures enforcement activity, but not necessarily long-term deterrence.
The full UK Goverment Release
France prevents 185 boats and 4,300 migrants reaching UK shores
French police units prevented 185 small boat crossing events in the first 3 months of a new UK-France deal.
French units funded by the UK as part of the landmark new UK-France deal have hit the ground running in their first 3 months.
According to information from the French authorities, officers prevented 185 small boat events between 27 April and 2 August.
This included action to stop launches, seize equipment including boats, engines and lifejackets, and arrest smugglers.
This means 61% of all small boat events were stopped across this time, an increase in the event prevention rate of nearly 5% compared to the same time period in 2025.
French reporting also indicates that in the 3 months since signing the deal, there have been 4 weeks that saw the French intercept every potential crossing event, a prevention rate of 100%.
Action taken also directly prevented over 4,300 crossing attempts, stopping migrants from reaching UK shores – with potentially hundreds more crossing attempts stopped before they could even reach French beaches.
French officers deployed a range of tactics and interventions across May, June and July to crack down on the evil smuggling gangs and disrupt migrant crossings.
This included making direct interceptions on beaches, stopping boats setting off from the shore and preventing migrants from boarding taxi boats.
In May, French units prevented a potential small boat launch from south of Calais. They identified 3 groups of people totalling nearly 100 migrants, alongside a boat hidden in vegetation, 4 cans of petrol and an engine, and neutralised the crossing.
In the same month, French police dispersed a large group of migrants and apprehended a suspected people smuggler 3 kilometres away from the French coast.
During another event in July, officers spotted a large group of migrants heading towards Dunkirk. Deploying surveillance technology, officers monitored the group and then swooped in to neutralise the boat being carried, stopping another crossing in its tracks.
Officers also took action to seize boats and engines from vehicles travelling towards the coast alongside concealed equipment hiding along the shoreline.
In May, specialist French security officers intercepted a vehicle and discovered a boat with an engine, 3 fuel jerry cans and a fuel tank inside. A suspected people smuggler was arrested, and a crossing attempt was prevented.
In June, officers arrested 2 suspected traffickers for transporting nautical equipment in a vehicle. Inside, they found a boat and 3 jerry cans of fuel.
In July, the Gendarmerie drone detected a group of migrants transporting a boat engine. A sweep of the area was conducted, and a boat was detected and seized.
Officers are also intercepting boats at sea, using new maritime tactics directly targeting migrant taxi boats.
Since the first deployment of these new tactics on 3 March, French units have intercepted 12 taxi boats on the water, with 3 taking place in just the last 2 weeks. This prevented them moving further up the coast, loading more and more migrants onto an unsafe vessel.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said:
Our new UK-France deal is already having a real impact, stopping crossings before they happen and disrupting the criminal gangs behind them.
People smugglers should be in no doubt, we’re taking down their operations, seizing their equipment and breaking their business model for good.
Through our joint work with France, we have stopped over 47,000 small boat crossing attempts since the election and we will not let up.”
Director of Maritime and Small Boats at Border Security Command, Charlie Eastaugh, said:
Our partnership with France is stronger than ever. Together, we are piling the pressure on the criminal gangs and preventing these illegal and dangerous crossings.
French officers are not shy in taking bold action to prevent these launches where it is safe and lawful to do so. They work in difficult and dangerous conditions to stop boats launching, seize equipment and disperse large migrant groups as well as saving thousands of lives at sea.
Our joint efforts are delivering results, and we will go further still to restore control of our borders and put these smugglers out of business.”
But the focus of French officers goes beyond just preventing launches.
Under a trial launched on 1 May under the new UK-France deal to remove migrants from French beaches, statistics provided by French authorities show that 119 migrants have been detained in total.
Of this number, 76 remain in detention, 32 have been released and 40 illegal migrants have been deported from France – either back to their home countries or other EU countries they have passed through – over 33% of the total number of illegal migrants detained so far.
The trial has been launched while the construction of a permanent Immigration Removal Centre in Dunkirk is ongoing.
Since the signing of the new deal with France, 2 additional police units are now active on French beaches. This includes a new 50 person riot police unit with specialist skills to contain and disperse groups of illegal migrants on French beaches.
In addition, the French are rolling out millions of pounds worth of drone surveillance, 2 new helicopters and a new camera surveillance system to intercept people smugglers and illegal migrants.
This month, the Home Secretary announced that a record number of National Crime Agency officers have been deployed to crack down on people smugglers, with the number of dedicated officers doubling since the start of 2025, from 276 to almost 800. These officers are working hand in glove with international partners and have seized over 1,100 small boats or engines since the election.
The Home Secretary is implementing the most sweeping reforms to our immigration system in modern times, removing the incentives that draw migrants to British soil and scaling up the removal of those with no right to be here. This builds on the over 80,000 returned since taking office.