24th August 2026
A £2.1 billion investment programme sounds impressive. But when the money is spread over 20 years, the real question is not how big the number looks today. It is what that money will actually buy by the time the programme is complete.
Highland Council's Highland Investment Plan is one of the biggest long-term infrastructure programmes the authority has attempted. It is intended to tackle some of the Highlands' most obvious problems: ageing schools, roads and transport infrastructure, council buildings, depots and community facilities.
The headline figure is £2.1 billion over 20 years.
That is a huge amount of money but there is a reason to look beyond the headline.
The Council's own documentation makes clear that the plan is based on ring-fencing 2% of Council Tax revenue each year, or an equivalent revenue stream, with that income then being capitalised to create the investment fund. In other words, this is not simply £2.1 billion sitting in a bank account waiting to be spent.
In May 2025, the Council itself described the figure as a “potential £2.1bn” of capital investment over 20 years.
The same announcement put the investment being considered for the first five years at around £756 million.
That distinction matters.
A 20-year investment programme inevitably contains assumptions about future Council Tax income, borrowing, construction costs, priorities and the ability of the Council to keep projects affordable.
And almost none of those things are fixed.
What will £2.1 billion buy in 2045?
This is perhaps the biggest unanswered question.
Suppose the Council identifies £2.1 billion worth of projects today. If construction costs rise significantly over the next 10, 15 or 20 years, the same £2.1 billion will buy less.
That isn't a criticism of Highland Council. It is simply how long-term capital programmes work.
A school that costs £50 million to build today will not necessarily cost £50 million in ten years' time.
Land costs can change. Building regulations can change. Energy standards can change. Labour costs can change. Materials can become more expensive. Interest rates can alter financing costs. And projects themselves can become more complicated as they move from an initial concept to detailed design.
There is also the possibility that the Council's priorities change.
A 20-year programme is long enough for several administrations, several budgets and potentially several economic cycles.
What looks like a priority in 2026 may not be regarded in quite the same way in 2036.
Thurso is a good example
Thurso gives us a useful illustration of the problem.
Highland Council has committed £100 million to a Community Point of Delivery in the town. The proposals include new education facilities and wider community uses, with the aim of replacing ageing school buildings and creating a much more integrated public facility.
Nobody could reasonably argue that Thurso does not need investment.
The existing school estate has serious problems, and the Council has described the Thurso development as one of its most significant public infrastructure investments in the Highlands for more than a decade.
But look at the timetable.
In March 2025 the Council said that, if the Thurso Community Point of Delivery was prioritised for earliest possible delivery, the estimated operational timescale was 2029/30.
We are now in August 2026 and the project is still going through its statutory consultation process.
That does not mean the project will not happen.
It does, however, demonstrate why a timetable stretching several years into the future should be treated as an estimate rather than a guarantee.
And £100 million may not remain £100 million
The same applies to the cost.
The £100 million figure is an important commitment, but the project is still being developed. The Council's pre-design consultation only took place in December and January, with more than 500 people taking part, and the findings are now being used to develop the detailed proposals.
At some point there will have to be a detailed design, planning, procurement and eventually a construction contract.
That is when an estimated cost becomes much more meaningful.
If the eventual cost is higher than the original allocation, what happens?
There are only a few possibilities.
The Council could find additional money. It could borrow more. It could reduce the scope of the project. It could postpone other projects. Or it could decide that some elements originally envisaged for the development are no longer affordable.
That is why the £100 million should perhaps be viewed as a current investment commitment rather than a guaranteed final construction price.
The £2.1 billion has a lot to do
There is another reason why the headline figure needs some context.
The money isn't just for Thurso.
The Highland Investment Plan is intended to cover schools, roads, transport infrastructure, depots, offices and community facilities across a vast geographical area. The Council says the plan includes the replacement or refurbishment of around 90 schools.
In October 2025, the Council reported that 91 of its 195 operational schools were rated C – poor for condition and/or suitability.
That is a formidable challenge.
If there are dozens of schools needing substantial investment, alongside roads, bridges, community facilities and other public infrastructure, £2.1 billion suddenly doesn't look quite as enormous as the headline suggests.
It is an investment plan, not a cheque
This is perhaps the fairest way to look at the whole programme.
The Highland Investment Plan is real. Money is already being committed and projects are moving forward. In February 2026 the Council announced preferred contractors for the first phase of HIP projects, while saying around £750 million was planned for investment during the first five years.
So it would be wrong to dismiss the programme as simply a collection of promises.
But it would be equally wrong to assume that £2.1 billion represents a fixed pot of money with the purchasing power it has today.
It is a 20-year financial framework.
And that distinction is important.
The real test will be what gets delivered
The success of the Highland Investment Plan should ultimately not be measured by the size of the number announced.
It should be measured by what people can actually see on the ground.
How many schools have been replaced or substantially improved?
How many roads and bridges have been brought up to an acceptable standard?
How many community facilities have actually been delivered?
How much did the projects eventually cost compared with their original estimates?
And perhaps most importantly, how much of the programme remains affordable when construction costs and Council finances are very different from those of 2026?
Those are the figures that will really tell the story.
For people in Caithness, the Thurso project will be one of the most visible tests.
A £100 million education and community development would be a major investment in the town and could have benefits extending well beyond the schools themselves.
But if it takes until 2030, 2031 or later to open, the question will inevitably arise about how much the original £100 million commitment has changed by the time the first pupils walk through the doors.
And if the Highland Investment Plan is still running in the 2040s, there will be an even bigger question.
Will £2.1 billion still sound like an enormous investment then — or will we discover that two decades of inflation and changing priorities have transformed what that figure can actually deliver?
The answer will not be found in the original announcement.
It will be found in the buildings, roads and services that Highland communities actually receive.
That is why the £2.1 billion figure should be welcomed — but also watched very carefully.