31st August 2026
With the harvesting period underway there is a danger that we think of a heatwave as something which affects us when we go outside.
We complain about the temperature, struggle to sleep, perhaps enjoy a few days of sunshine and then hope that normal Scottish weather returns.
For farmers, it is rather different.
A heatwave can mean the difference between a profitable harvest and a financial loss. It can determine how much wheat goes into the grain store, how many potatoes reach a useful size, whether grass grows sufficiently for livestock and whether farmers have enough water to keep crops alive.
And this year's exceptionally hot and dry weather is beginning to show up in the harvest.
The first figures are particularly worrying in England. AHDB's 2026 harvest data show wheat, spring barley and oats running below their recent averages, while the harvest has arrived exceptionally early. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit has warned that the UK cereal and oilseed harvest could become one of the poorest in the modern record.
But there is an important qualification for readers in Scotland.
Scotland has not experienced exactly the same agricultural conditions as England.
That matters.
Earlier in the growing season, AHDB reported that crop conditions were generally stronger in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales than in England. Scotland's later harvest also means that some of the final effects of the dry weather will take longer to become clear.
SRUC's Scottish crop update in August reported harvesting of vining peas, winter oilseed rape and winter oats, with yields and moisture described as fair to good in the areas covered.
So it would be wrong to suggest that Scottish farmers are facing exactly the same harvest disaster as some farmers in England.
But that does not mean Scotland has nothing to worry about.
Far from it.
Scotland is not immune to the changing weather
The Scottish Government's own climate work recognises drought, water scarcity and heat stress as increasing risks to agriculture and the wider land-based economy.
That is an important development.
For generations, Scottish agriculture has benefited from a generally cooler and wetter climate.
That has not always made farming easy. Anyone who has tried to get a crop harvested after a wet Scottish summer will know that too well.
But excessive rain and excessive heat are very different problems.
Farm machinery can eventually get onto wet land when conditions improve.
A crop that has suffered severe moisture stress during a crucial period of development cannot necessarily recover.
The problem for farmers is therefore becoming one of managing extremes.
One year may be too wet and another may be too dry with the next both.
The English harvest is already sending warning signals
In England, the effects are becoming more obvious.
The 2026 wheat yield being reported by AHDB is around 6.7 tonnes per hectare, well below recent averages. Spring barley and oats have also been disappointing, although not every crop has suffered. Oilseed rape has actually performed comparatively well.
That is important because it demonstrates that climate damage is not necessarily universal.
Some crops cope better and some varieties cope better. Some soils retain moisture better and farmers with irrigation, reservoirs and protected growing systems have a better chance of maintaining production.
British berry growers provide a fascinating example.
Despite the heatwaves, the berry harvest is currently about 6% higher than last year's already strong crop. Polytunnels and drip irrigation have helped growers control conditions, although there are concerns about later-season strawberries and a forecast fall in blackcurrant production.
The lesson is not that climate change is good for berries. It is that investment can make agriculture more resilient.
But investment costs money and eventually the cost reaches the consumer
This is where the story moves from agriculture to the supermarket.
During the summer, wholesale prices for some vegetables rose sharply as heat and drought reduced British production. Reports indicated substantial increases in wholesale prices for tomatoes, iceberg lettuce and potatoes, while some supermarkets were having to bring in more produce from countries such as Spain and the Netherlands.
That is how a weather event in a field eventually becomes an economic event in a kitchen.
A crop fails and he farmer receives less income.
A wholesaler searches for alternative supplies.
Imports increase and ransport costs are incurred.
Suppliers compete for available produce and eventually some of the additional cost finds its way into the price paid by the shopper.
It does not necessarily happen immediately.
Supermarkets have contracts, stocks and purchasing power. They can absorb some increases and change suppliers.
But if poor harvests continue, the pressure becomes much harder to absorb.
Scotland could become increasingly important
This is where the Scottish position becomes particularly interesting.
If English harvests are badly affected while Scottish production remains comparatively resilient, Scotland could become more important to Britain's food supply.
But there is a catch.
Scotland cannot be treated as an unlimited insurance policy for the rest of Britain.
Scottish farmers face the same changing climate.
And Scotland's own agricultural production is important to Scottish consumers.
If a poor English harvest results in greater demand for Scottish grain, that could push up prices for Scottish producers and for businesses which depend on Scottish crops.
The market does not stop at the border.
A Scottish farmer selling grain into a wider UK market is not necessarily going to sell it cheaply simply because England has had a poor harvest.
The economics of supply and demand still apply.
Then there is livestock
The cereal story is only part of the problem.
Farm animals also need water and food.
Hot, dry weather reduces grass growth. That can mean farmers have to buy additional feed or use stored forage earlier than expected.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board has warned that hotter and drier summers are already affecting livestock productivity, animal welfare and farm resilience.
For Scotland, where livestock farming is particularly important, this matters.
A heatwave does not have to kill an animal to create an economic cost.
If an animal eats less, grows more slowly, produces less milk or requires additional feed, the farmer still pays the price.
Eventually the food chain pays some of it too.
The real danger is several bad years in succession
One poor harvest can usually be managed.
Farmers have reserves.
Britain can import food.
Markets adjust.
But what happens if extreme weather becomes more frequent?
That is the question which should worry policymakers.
Britain has traditionally had an extremely useful safety valve.
When domestic production falls, we import.
It is an entirely sensible arrangement in normal circumstances.
But what happens when several major food-producing countries experience poor harvests at the same time?
That possibility is becoming harder to dismiss.
The June heatwave reduced crop production across parts of Europe, with estimates suggesting around nine million tonnes of grain production could be lost.
France has also been hit particularly hard in sugar beet production, with one major producer forecasting yields more than 20% below the previous year as extreme heat and drought affected crops.
If Britain needs to import more food at exactly the time when European farmers have less food to sell, the price mechanism becomes rather unpleasant.
We compete with everyone else for what is available.
What does this mean for Caithness?
This is where the national story becomes a local one.
Caithness is a long way from many of Britain's major food distribution centres.
That does not mean supermarkets here will run out of food.
It does mean that transport costs matter.
A shortage somewhere in England or continental Europe can eventually affect a supermarket shelf in Wick or Thurso.
And if fuel prices rise at the same time, the cost of moving food north becomes another pressure.
This is one reason why local food production matters even if Caithness could never produce everything its population consumes.
Every tonne of food produced locally is one less tonne that has to travel hundreds of miles.
That does not make local food immune from price increases.
Farmers still face fertiliser, machinery, electricity, feed and labour costs.
But it does provide another layer of resilience.
We should also be careful about blaming everything on climate change
There is a temptation whenever there is a heatwave to attribute every agricultural problem directly to climate change.
That would be too simplistic.
Weather has always affected farming.
Farmers have always experienced good years and bad years.
Markets also matter.
Fertiliser prices matter.
Energy prices matter.
Interest rates matter.
Government policy matters.
Global grain production matters.
War matters.
What has changed is the growing evidence that extreme weather events are becoming a more significant and persistent risk.
The Scottish Government's own adaptation work now treats drought, heat stress and water scarcity as risks which Scottish agriculture needs to prepare for.
That is a very different proposition from saying that every poor harvest is caused by climate change.
The question for government
Perhaps the biggest lesson from the summer of 2026 is that food security should not be measured simply by asking whether Britain has enough food today.
We need to ask whether British farmers can continue producing enough food profitably in a climate which is becoming more unpredictable.
That means thinking about water.
It means supporting reservoirs and efficient irrigation where appropriate.
It means agricultural research into varieties which can tolerate heat and drought.
It means protecting productive farmland.
It means ensuring that farmers have enough financial resilience to survive bad years.
And it means recognising that food production is part of national infrastructure.
Scotland already has its own climate adaptation plans and agricultural policies, and those need to reflect the particular conditions of Scottish farming rather than simply adopting an England-based view of the problem.
So will food prices rise?
Probably, but not necessarily in one dramatic jump.
Some prices may rise sharply for a period and then settle when supplies recover.
Others may be protected by imports.
Some crops may actually become cheaper if production is unexpectedly good.
And farmers in different parts of Britain will experience very different conditions.
But the direction of travel is becoming harder to ignore.
Extreme weather introduces volatility.
And volatility itself has a cost.
For households already struggling with the cost of living, another period of rising food prices would be unwelcome.
For farmers, repeated poor harvests could be even more serious.
The real question is therefore not whether this year's heatwave will make a loaf of bread cost another few pence.
It is whether Britain is preparing for a future in which extreme weather becomes a normal business risk for the people who produce our food.
Scotland may have had a better agricultural year than some parts of England so far.
We should be grateful for that.
But we should not confuse being less badly affected with being unaffected.
The climate is changing.
And the price of food may increasingly become one of the ways we notice it.