4th September 2026
Christmas may still seem a long way away, but what happens to the price of the Christmas dinner is already being decided in fields, orchards, olive groves and plantations thousands of miles from the Highlands.
The warning signs are beginning to appear.
Britain has experienced an extraordinary summer of heat and drought, with farmers reporting damage to vegetables, potatoes, cereals and grassland. Across Europe, extreme heat and drought have affected crops including olives, maize and salads. And beyond Europe, another potentially important weather event is developing. A strong El Niño is expected to disrupt growing conditions in parts of South America, Asia and Africa, putting crops such as coffee, cocoa and sugar under pressure.
None of this means that Britain is heading for empty supermarket shelves at Christmas.
It does, however, mean that some of the food we routinely put into our shopping trolleys could become more expensive, smaller in size, harder to source or simply less predictable in price.
And there is a particularly important point for consumers. The effect of a bad harvest does not necessarily appear in the supermarket the following week. Farmers grow the crop, harvests are assessed, commodity markets react, processors and wholesalers renegotiate contracts, supermarkets decide how much of the increase they can absorb and only then does the customer begin to see the effect.
The drought happens in the field and the price rise can arrive months later.
Potatoes could be one of the clearest warnings
For anyone in Scotland, potatoes are perhaps the most obvious product to watch.
British potato growers have been warning about the effects of prolonged heat and drought. The problem is not simply whether there will be enough potatoes. Hot, dry conditions can reduce yields and produce smaller tubers, leaving growers with less marketable produce and supermarkets having to adjust their sourcing. Wholesale potato prices have already come under pressure.
That matters at Christmas because potatoes are not an optional extra for many households.
Roast potatoes, mashed potatoes and sometimes chips are all part of the British diet, and a poor crop can eventually feed through into prices.
But potatoes are also a good example of why panic buying makes little sense. They are perishable and there is little point filling the garage with sacks of potatoes today in the expectation that they will be expensive in December.
This is one to watch rather than stockpile.
Vegetables may be another weak point
The same problem is affecting British vegetables.
Growers have reported severe effects from the combination of high temperatures and lack of rain, with some crops suffering reduced yields and quality problems. Lettuce, spinach and other leafy vegetables are particularly vulnerable to heat stress, while other crops have also been affected.
That creates a bigger problem than simply paying another few pence for a bag of vegetables.
Britain imports a large proportion of its fruit and vegetables, and some of those imports come from countries that are themselves increasingly exposed to drought and heat. The Food Foundation has warned that around 40% of the UK's food is imported, rising to about 80% for fruit and 47% for vegetables.
So when British crops fail, we cannot always assume that overseas suppliers will simply fill the gap at the same price.
They may be dealing with the same problem.
Olive oil is already a warning
Olive oil is perhaps an even clearer example of how climate can reach directly into the kitchen cupboard.
Mediterranean producers have been dealing with heat, drought and wildfires, and farmers have warned that another difficult season could put upward pressure on prices.
Olive oil has already experienced enormous price increases over recent years. The latest problems therefore come on top of a market that has already been through considerable disruption.
For a household that uses olive oil regularly, buying an extra bottle when it is genuinely discounted makes considerably more sense than waiting until Christmas and discovering that the price has moved sharply higher.
It is one of the few products where modest forward buying makes some sense because an unopened bottle has a reasonably long shelf life.
Coffee is more complicated
Coffee is an interesting case because the immediate picture is not necessarily bad news.
Earlier this year, global coffee prices had actually eased as supplies improved. The World Bank reported lower coffee prices compared with the previous year and forecast another increase in global production for the 2025-26 season.
But that does not mean coffee is safe.
A strong El Niño can produce drought and excessive rainfall in different coffee-growing regions. Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia are particularly important to the global coffee market, and weather problems in those countries can quickly change the outlook.
There is also an interesting twist here. Recent Brazilian weather has already created concerns about coffee quality in some areas.
So coffee is probably a product where I would buy when it is on a good supermarket promotion rather than deliberately stockpiling large quantities.
If you drink it every day, having an extra packet or two in the cupboard is hardly unreasonable.
And then there is chocolate
This is where the Christmas story gets particularly interesting.
Chocolate depends on cocoa, and cocoa has already demonstrated how vulnerable it can be to extreme weather.
West Africa dominates world cocoa production, and weather disruption there has previously caused enormous damage to crops. Now the developing El Niño is creating another potential threat to cocoa production. Reuters reports that strong El Niño events have historically been particularly damaging to cocoa, while the 2023-24 episode contributed to severe disruption and a dramatic increase in cocoa prices.
That matters because cocoa does not only appear in bars of chocolate.
It is in Christmas selection boxes, biscuits, cakes, puddings, drinking chocolate and countless processed foods.
The consumer may never see a sign saying “cocoa prices have risen”.
Instead, the chocolate bar becomes smaller, the promotional discount disappears, or the price quietly increases.
That is how commodity inflation often reaches us.
Sugar could join the list
Sugar is another food that deserves more attention.
El Niño can produce very different weather conditions in the world's major sugar-producing regions. Drought in India and Thailand can reduce production, while excessive rain can interfere with harvesting in Brazil.
Again, consumers do not necessarily think of sugar when they think about food inflation.
But sugar is embedded in an enormous number of Christmas products, from confectionery and cakes to drinks, preserves and processed foods.
So even where the price of a bag of sugar does not change dramatically, higher sugar costs can eventually appear in hundreds of other products.
Wheat, flour, bread and biscuits
One of the biggest potential issues is sitting right in front of us.
Wheat.
The UK harvest has been difficult following prolonged dry weather, with national wheat yields reported to be around 12% below the five-year average. Northern Scotland and northern England have performed somewhat better in places, but the national picture remains challenging and highly variable.
That does not mean Britain will run out of flour.
It does mean that the economics of producing flour and the availability of good-quality domestic wheat deserve watching.
And wheat is not just bread.
It is flour, biscuits, cakes, pastry, crackers, breakfast cereals and many processed foods.
A poor wheat harvest therefore has a much wider impact than the price of a loaf.
Oats and barley could matter too
Two other Scottish staples should not be overlooked.
Oats have also been affected by the difficult growing conditions, while barley is important not only as food but to the drinks industry.
That creates an interesting Christmas connection.
A poor cereal harvest can potentially affect breakfast products, porridge and animal feed while also putting pressure on the ingredients used in beer and whisky production.
For consumers, the effect may be indirect.
For farmers, food manufacturers, pubs and restaurants, it can be much more immediate.
And this is where the distinction between a food shortage and food inflation becomes important.
Britain does not have to run out of something for it to become considerably more expensive.
Dairy is another one to watch
Butter, cream, milk and cheese are staples of the Christmas shopping basket.
Here the story is complicated because milk prices have not simply been marching upwards. UK farm-gate milk prices were actually 20% lower in July 2026 than a year earlier, although milk production was also down by 2.4%.
At the same time, farmers have been reporting the effects of heatwaves and poor grass growth.
That matters because grass is effectively the cheapest feed available to many livestock farmers. If drought reduces grass growth and farmers cannot make sufficient winter forage, they may have to buy more feed.
That raises production costs.
The effects can take time to reach consumers, which is why today's farm-gate milk price should not automatically be interpreted as a forecast of December supermarket prices.
Butter and cream are therefore products I would watch rather than panic buy.
If butter reaches a very good promotional price, however, buying extra and freezing it is a sensible household strategy.
What about beef?
Beef is more difficult to predict.
Drought can put cattle farmers under pressure because there may be less grass and less winter feed available. That can encourage some farmers to reduce herd numbers or bring animals forward for slaughter.
Initially, that can actually increase supplies.
But if farmers reduce breeding herds, the consequences can appear later as a smaller supply of cattle.
So a drought can potentially produce a strange sequence in which supply increases in the short term but becomes tighter further down the road.
I would therefore not recommend filling the freezer with beef simply because of the weather.
Buy it when the price is right.
Eggs deserve a mention
Eggs are another product where feed costs and weather can matter.
Hens need feed, and much of that feed depends on cereals and other agricultural commodities. Heat can also affect animal productivity.
Egg prices have already risen substantially over the longer cost-of-living period. Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit put the increase in eggs at 59% since the beginning of its comparison period, although that reflects many factors rather than the summer's drought alone.
So eggs are another example of why it would be wrong to blame every price increase on climate.
The food system has many moving parts.
Rice is worth watching
Rice may seem completely unrelated to British weather, but it illustrates the global nature of the food system.
Rice-producing countries are vulnerable to drought, flooding and extreme heat, and the developing El Niño is expected to produce major changes in rainfall patterns across parts of Asia and elsewhere.
Britain imports its rice.
That means a weather problem in another continent can eventually become a price problem here.
The same applies to many products that we regard as everyday essentials.
What about tea?
Tea is another product I would put on the watch list, but not in the panic-buying category.
Tea is grown in countries where rainfall and temperature are critical to production. Climate disruption can affect both yields and quality.
But the current evidence does not justify telling people that tea is about to become scarce in Britain.
If tea is a daily necessity in your household, buying an extra packet or two when it is on offer is perfectly sensible.
There is little reason, however, to turn the cupboard into a tea warehouse.
Orange juice could be vulnerable
Orange juice is perhaps one of the more interesting Christmas products because the global supply situation remains difficult.
The orange industry has been hit by disease and weather problems in major producing regions, particularly Brazil.
Forecasts for the 2026-27 orange juice season have pointed towards a substantial fall in global output.
That makes orange juice another product where buying a carton because it is on a good offer could make sense.
But again, there is no need to panic.
Supermarkets are remarkably good at switching suppliers and adjusting product ranges when particular crops become expensive.
And don't forget the nuts
There is another category that tends to disappear from the climate conversation.
Nuts.
Almonds, pistachios, walnuts and other nuts are often grown in areas where water availability is becoming an increasingly important issue.
They are not necessarily going to be the next big Christmas food crisis, but they illustrate just how many apparently ordinary products depend upon stable growing conditions somewhere else in the world.
The Christmas shopping list is effectively a map of global agriculture.
The biggest danger may not be shortages
It is tempting to look at all of this and predict a Christmas food crisis.
I think that would go too far.
The more realistic danger is volatility.
Britain's supermarkets are extremely competitive. That competition has so far helped protect consumers from some of the increases hitting suppliers. Reuters reported in August that UK food inflation had remained surprisingly subdued because supermarkets and suppliers had absorbed some higher costs, used longer-term contracts and competed aggressively for customers.
But there is a limit to how much retailers can absorb.
Shop price inflation was already running at 1.5% in August, its highest rate for two years, with fresh produce particularly affected by hot, dry weather and higher energy and fuel costs.
The Bank of England is also expecting food price inflation to accelerate later in 2026.
That combination means the Christmas shopper could find that some products remain surprisingly cheap because supermarkets are competing hard, while others suddenly jump in price because there is simply less supply available.
Should we start stockpiling?
I certainly would not recommend panic buying.
We have seen before how quickly predictions of shortages can turn into unnecessary household stockpiling.
But there is a difference between panic buying and sensible household planning.
For products that you regularly consume and that have a long shelf life, buying an extra item when it is on a genuinely good offer is reasonable.
Olive oil is one example.
Coffee and tea can be bought when discounted.
Chocolate and other cocoa-based products are worth watching.
Orange juice can be bought ahead if it is shelf-stable and on offer.
Butter can be frozen.
Rice, pasta, flour and other dry goods are already products many households sensibly keep in reserve.
But potatoes, fresh milk, fresh vegetables and other perishables are different.
There is little advantage in buying them months ahead.
The bigger question is what happens next
Perhaps the most important part of this story is not whether your Christmas dinner costs another £5 or £10.
It is whether we are beginning to see a fundamental change in the economics of food.
For decades, consumers in Britain became accustomed to food being relatively cheap and readily available. When one country had a bad harvest, another could often supply the shortfall.
But climate disruption is making that assumption less comfortable.
Britain is increasingly dependent on imports for fruit and vegetables, while those suppliers are themselves dealing with heat, drought and water shortages.
At the same time, energy, fertiliser, transport, labour and insurance costs can all feed into the final price.
And now a strong El Niño is adding another layer of uncertainty to the global market for coffee, cocoa, sugar and other commodities.
That does not mean every year will produce a food crisis.
It does mean that the idea of permanently cheap food may become increasingly difficult to maintain.
For consumers in Caithness, there is a final irony.
We live in an area with a strong agricultural tradition, yet many of the foods sitting on our Christmas tables may have travelled hundreds or thousands of miles before reaching a supermarket shelf in Wick or Thurso.
The potatoes may be British and he beef may be Scottish. The milk may be Scottish.
But the olive oil comes from the Mediterranean, the coffee from tropical regions, the cocoa from West Africa, the oranges from major citrus-producing regions and much of the fruit and vegetables from countries already under water and heat pressure.
Our Christmas dinner may look local. The supply chain behind it is anything but. And that is why this summer's weather deserves attention.
The real question is not whether there will be food on the shelves at Christmas. There almost certainly will be. The question is what will it cost when we get there?