9th September 2026
Brent crude is once again approaching the psychologically important $100-a-barrel threshold. But this time the move is being driven by something considerably more serious than a normal imbalance between supply and demand.
The latest escalation in the war between the United States and Iran has begun to threaten oil tankers, shipping routes and energy infrastructure across the Gulf. At the same time, the continuing Russia-Ukraine war is disrupting Russian refining capacity and tightening supplies of diesel and other refined fuels.
Taken together, the two conflicts are creating a global energy market with increasingly little room for another shock.
As this is a fast moving situation it is worth keepeing mind the articleis published on 9 September 2026 at7.10am.
The Iran escalation
The immediate catalyst for the latest rise in oil prices has been the rapidly escalating confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
The United States has destroyed a number of Iranian oil tankers in recent days, following attacks and attempted attacks against American military forces. The latest strikes brought the reported number of Iranian tankers destroyed since the weekend to eight.
This is significant because the conflict is no longer confined to conventional military targets. Oil transportation itself has become part of the battlefield.
Iran has subsequently retaliated with further attacks, including missile strikes against U.S. military assets and attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian missiles have also been directed at a U.S. military installation in Jordan, although most were intercepted.
At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have widened the regional conflict by attacking Saudi Arabia, including areas containing important energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has responded with military action in Yemen.
The result is a rapidly developing chain of events:
The United States attacks Iranian oil tankers.
Iran retaliates against U.S. military targets and shipping.
Commercial vessels face increasing danger around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian-backed forces attack Saudi Arabia.
Saudi energy infrastructure becomes another potential target.
Saudi Arabia retaliates against the Houthis.
For the oil market, the most important consequence is that the conflict is moving closer to the physical flow of energy.
Hormuz is the key
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important factor in determining where oil prices go from here.
The waterway is one of the world's critical oil chokepoints, connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets. A sustained interruption would have consequences far beyond Iran and the United States.
Early signs of disruption are already appearing.
The number of commodity vessels passing through the Strait has fallen sharply compared with recent averages. Even if the physical supply of crude has not yet been dramatically reduced, the willingness of tanker operators, insurers and shipping companies to operate in the region is increasingly becoming a problem.
This is an important distinction.
A market can experience a supply shock before the physical supply actually disappears.
If a tanker owner decides that sending a vessel through Hormuz is too dangerous, or an insurer demands a dramatically higher premium, the cost of moving oil rises immediately. Traders then begin pricing in the possibility of future shortages.
That is one reason Brent has moved so rapidly towards $100.
But Iran is not the only oil problem
There is another conflict that needs to be considered when looking at where oil prices go next: the war between Russia and Ukraine.
While the immediate surge towards $100 Brent is being driven primarily by the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran, Ukraine's increasingly aggressive attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are adding another layer of pressure to an already fragile global energy system.
Ukraine has increasingly targeted Russian refineries, oil terminals and other energy infrastructure with long-range drones. Several major Russian refineries have suffered attacks or operational disruptions in recent weeks, with further strikes reported in early September.
The effect is particularly important in refined fuels.
Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers, but a refinery converts crude into products such as diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and fuel oil. Damaging a refinery therefore does not necessarily remove the equivalent amount of crude from the global market.
Russia can, to some extent, compensate by exporting more crude instead.
What it does remove, however, is refining capacity.
That distinction is becoming increasingly important. A significant proportion of Russian refining capacity is currently unavailable, while Moscow has also restricted diesel exports. The result is increasing pressure on international supplies of refined fuel.
The consequences are being felt beyond Russia. Fuel-oil markets have tightened sharply, while the price of marine fuel has risen significantly. This is particularly important for the shipping industry because higher fuel prices increase the cost of transporting almost everything around the world.
Two wars, one energy market
This creates an unusual situation for the oil market.
The world is not facing just one energy disruption. It is facing several at the same time.
Russia's refining system is being attacked from the air. Iranian oil tankers are being destroyed by the United States. Commercial shipping is coming under attack around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi energy infrastructure is being threatened by Iranian-backed forces.
The result is that pressure is appearing at several points in the energy chain simultaneously: production, refining, transportation and distribution.
That is why the Ukraine war matters to the $100 oil question.
On its own, Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries might not be enough to push Brent dramatically higher. Russia remains capable of exporting substantial quantities of crude, while other producers can increase supply and countries such as China can adjust refined-product exports.
But when combined with the Iran conflict, the calculation changes.
The greatest danger is not necessarily that the world suddenly loses millions of barrels of crude production.
It is that the global energy system loses sufficient spare capacity and flexibility to absorb another shock.
That is a much more dangerous situation.