16th September 2026
Two weeks ago I said this wasn't an oil shock — it was a refining shock. Crude was sitting at ninety dollars and all the damage was happening in refining diesel
But, since then there have been developments, Brent oil has closed at $109. American diesel has passed $6 a gallon, a record in cash terms. And the price of crude plus the refining margin is now around $200 a barrel.
But it's not just about headling oil prices - Brent futures are $109, while buyers of Murban from the UAE are paying $131, Oman's crude is $121 and Dated Brent is $122.
This video looks at what changed in a fortnight — the damaged East-West pipeline, the seizure of Mayun island, tanker rates at a million dollars a day — and why the three things that softened the first shock have now run out. We also look at what it means for inflation, interest rates and the risk of recession, and also the reasons this may be less severe than 2022.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Not an oil shock — until now
00:37 Why the headline price is the cheapest
01:22 What changed: the backup route
02:07 The cost of shipping
03:06 Inventories and refining
03:50 China comes back
04:20 The three buffers are gone
5:12 It isn't only oil
6:25 Inflation and interest rates
7:26 How Bad is it?
8:26 Why this may be milder than 2022