16th September 2026
Shetland travellers are facing sharply higher air fares just as the global oil market is being hit by one of its most serious supply disruptions in years.
Passengers booking flights between Shetland and the Scottish mainland have reportedly seen fares jump substantially, raising questions about whether the latest surge in oil and jet-fuel prices is beginning to filter through to regional air travel.
There is no evidence that the latest fare increases can be attributed entirely to fuel costs. Airline ticket prices are affected by demand, available seats, operating costs and dynamic pricing. But the timing is striking.
The global oil market is under severe pressure following disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies, while Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — an important alternative route for moving Saudi crude towards the Red Sea — is currently out of action.
That matters to aviation because crude oil ultimately feeds into the production of jet fuel.
From oil shock to air fares
Jet fuel has become significantly more expensive during the current crisis, while concerns have grown about the availability of refined petroleum products.
The UK Government has previously acknowledged the importance of maintaining adequate jet-fuel supplies, although it has said that airlines and airports have stocks and that there is not currently a UK-wide shortage.
The problem for airlines is that they cannot simply reduce their fuel consumption in response to a price spike.
An aircraft flying from Shetland to Aberdeen still requires broadly the same amount of fuel whether the flight is half full or completely full.
Higher fuel costs therefore put direct pressure on the economics of regional services.
Why Shetland could feel the impact particularly quickly
Shetland is different from many parts of mainland Britain.
For many island residents, flying is not simply a discretionary choice between different forms of transport. For some journeys, it is an essential connection with the mainland.
That means passengers have limited alternatives if air fares rise or flights are reduced.
There is also a relatively small number of seats available on individual services.
This is important because airline pricing is dynamic.
A flight might initially have a number of cheaper seats available. Once those seats are sold, the next fare category can be considerably more expensive.
On a small regional aircraft, that transition can happen surprisingly quickly.
A passenger checking the same route on different days can therefore see a dramatic difference in price without the airline necessarily having increased the underlying cost of every seat by the same amount.
The fuel problem could nevertheless become much bigger
The immediate concern is not simply today's oil price.
It is what happens if the Middle East disruption continues for weeks rather than days.
The Saudi East-West pipeline is an important piece of infrastructure because it provides an alternative route for Saudi oil exports when the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
Its shutdown means more reliance on alternative routes and existing oil inventories.
If those inventories are progressively drawn down, the market's buffer against further disruption becomes smaller.
That could keep crude prices elevated and put additional pressure on refined products, including aviation fuel.
The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the possibility that airlines will have to pass more of those costs on to passengers.
There is another risk for island travellers
Fuel inflation could also affect the number of flights available.
If regional routes become significantly more expensive to operate, airlines may look at frequencies, aircraft utilisation and marginal services.
Fewer seats can then create a second problem.
Even if oil prices stop rising, reduced capacity can push fares higher because more passengers are competing for fewer seats.
For a route with several flights a day, passengers may have alternatives.
For an island route with limited services, the effect can be much more pronounced.
Are we seeing the beginning of an aviation squeeze?
It is too early to say that the current Shetland fare increases are entirely the result of the oil crisis.
But the ingredients for a squeeze are clearly present.
Higher oil prices increase jet-fuel costs. Higher fuel costs increase airline operating costs. Limited regional capacity restricts passengers' alternatives. And dynamic pricing can magnify the increase faced by passengers booking later.
That combination could make island air travel increasingly expensive if the oil crisis persists.
For Shetland residents, the issue is therefore bigger than the price of a barrel of Brent crude.
It is about the cost of maintaining an essential transport link to the mainland.
And with the world's oil inventories potentially being drawn down to compensate for disrupted supplies, the next few weeks could determine whether today's fare increases prove temporary — or become the beginning of a much more expensive period for regional air travel.
The latest oil-market developments remain highly fluid, and individual Loganair fares can change according to booking date, availability and demand. The current fare increases should therefore not be assumed to be caused solely by fuel prices.