18th September 2026
Much of the attention in recent weeks has been on the rising price of oil. But there is another energy price that could have an even more direct effect on millions of households this winter: natural gas.
Gas is the main heating fuel for homes connected to the gas network and is also widely used for cooking. It is also important to the electricity system because gas-fired power stations can influence the wholesale price of electricity.
And the price of gas has been rising sharply.
Energy UK reported this week that wholesale gas prices reached their highest level since December 2022 during September and remain around 50% above their pre-conflict level. The organisation says the continuing disruption in the Middle East has created considerable volatility in the gas market.
That does not mean household gas bills will suddenly rise by 50%. The system does not work like that.
The price cap gives some protection
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by 4% from 1 October.
For a typical household paying by Direct Debit, the average gas unit rate will increase from around 7.3p per kWh to 7.97p per kWh, while the gas standing charge will rise to 29.68p a day.
The typical combined electricity and gas bill under the cap will be around £1,723 a year, although what an individual household actually pays depends on how much energy it uses.
The important point is that the October price cap is already largely determined. Today's wholesale gas price does not immediately become tomorrow's household bill.
Ofgem calculates the cap using wholesale prices over a previous period. This creates a delay between what is happening in the international gas market and what households eventually pay.
That delay could become important over the coming months.
January could be more interesting
The next price cap will cover January to March 2027, when gas demand is normally at its highest.
Ofgem is due to announce that cap on 25 November.
Nobody yet knows what the figure will be. Much will depend on what happens to wholesale gas prices during the period used to calculate the cap.
If gas prices fall back, the eventual increase could be limited. If they remain high, some of today's price increases will feed through into household bills.
Energy UK has already warned that the unusually high gas prices going into the colder months are likely to affect the January cap, although it says it is too early to put a precise figure on the increase.
This is why the gas market deserves attention now rather than waiting until January.
Why is gas becoming so expensive?
The immediate problem is international supply.
Europe is entering the winter with gas storage levels considerably below where they would normally be. Reuters reported this week that European storage was only around 69% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of about 85%.
At the same time, disruption to LNG supplies from the Middle East is forcing European and Asian buyers to compete for alternative supplies.
Britain is not simply dependent on gas arriving through the Middle East.
Energy UK says only around 2% of UK gas supplies come directly from countries around the Gulf. Britain obtains gas from a mixture of domestic North Sea production, Norway, European supplies and LNG, particularly from the United States.
That gives Britain some protection against a direct physical shortage.
But it does not completely protect consumers from the price.
Gas is traded in an interconnected international market. If European countries have to pay more to secure LNG supplies, that affects the wider European gas price and therefore the price British suppliers have to pay.
Gas also affects electricity bills
There is another reason the gas price matters even to households that do not heat their homes with gas.
Britain still relies on gas-fired power stations to provide electricity when required. Under the wholesale electricity market, the most expensive generator needed to meet demand can set the market price.
Gas plants are frequently that marginal generator.
So when the price of gas rises, it can push up wholesale electricity prices as well. Energy UK says gas can sometimes set the electricity price even when much of the electricity being produced is coming from cheaper renewable or nuclear sources.
That means a rise in gas prices can eventually affect households using electricity for heating, cooking and hot water as well as those connected to the gas network.
Britain is in a better position than in 2022
There is an important qualification.
Today's situation is not the same as the energy crisis of 2022.
Gas prices remain well below the extraordinary levels reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Energy UK points out that the gas price at the height of that crisis was around ten times normal average levels.
Britain's supply system has also become more diversified.
But the current problem demonstrates something that became painfully obvious in 2022: energy prices can move rapidly when the world is short of gas.
And unlike oil, which mainly affects transport and heating-oil users directly, gas goes right into the heart of the UK's domestic energy system.
What does this mean for households?
For people heating their homes with gas, the immediate message is that the October increase is known, but the January position is not.
A household using a lot of gas will naturally feel any increase much more than a household with low consumption.
For those on a standard variable tariff, the October price cap limits the unit rates and standing charges suppliers can impose. Those on fixed tariffs are treated differently and are not affected by the price-cap change in the same way.
There is also a small piece of good news on electricity. From October, VAT on domestic electricity is being reduced to zero until the end of March 2027, while the 5% VAT rate on gas remains.
That will help electricity users, although it cannot completely remove the effects of expensive gas from the energy system.
The winter question
The big unknown is what happens next.
If Middle Eastern gas supplies recover and European storage is filled more quickly, wholesale prices could fall.
If disruption continues, storage remains low and winter weather increases demand, the pressure could become much greater. Reuters reports that analysts are already warning that Europe remains vulnerable to a renewed price surge if supplies remain restricted and winter demand is high.
For British households, therefore, the story is not simply about whether gas is available.
It is about what price Britain will have to pay for it.
The October price cap gives households a little more certainty for the next three months. But the real test may come when Ofgem announces the January cap in November.
For millions of households that heat their homes with gas, that announcement could be much more important than today's headlines about the price of oil.