18th September 2026
Scottish Labour is about to get a new leader, but the bigger question is whether it can find a way back into the mainstream of Scottish politics. The leadership contest has narrowed to Michael Marra and Joe Fagan, after Monica Lennon failed to secure enough nominations to make the ballot. The result is due to be announced on 19 September 2026.
But changing the person at the top will not, on its own, solve Labour's problems.
The party faces a much bigger challenge than choosing a new leader.
A long way back
The May 2026 Scottish Parliament election was a difficult result for Labour. The SNP won 57 seats, while Labour and Reform UK each won 17. Labour had won 22 seats in 2021. That leaves Labour well short of the position it once occupied in Scottish politics.
Yet there is an interesting contrast. At the 2024 UK general election, Labour won a substantial number of Scottish Westminster seats, suggesting that many Scottish voters were prepared to support Labour in a UK election but did not necessarily carry that support over into the Holyrood election.
That difference should concern the new leadership.
It suggests that Labour's problem is not simply that people have stopped voting Labour altogether. Voters appear to be making different choices depending on the election and the issues involved.
Monica Lennon is out, but the questions remain
Monica Lennon was the first of the three candidates to declare for the leadership. She failed to obtain the necessary parliamentary nominations, leaving Marra and Fagan to contest the leadership. Lennon has subsequently criticised aspects of the party's direction and argued that Labour needs to reconnect with voters. Those are political arguments rather than established facts about the party as a whole.
Her exclusion from the ballot does not make the questions she raised disappear. Indeed, the new leader will have to confront many of the same issues.
Why have traditional Labour voters moved elsewhere?
Why has the party struggled to establish a distinctive Scottish identity? And what does Scottish Labour offer that voters cannot get from the SNP, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens or Reform?
The constitutional question
One of Labour's most difficult problems is that Scottish politics remains heavily influenced by the question of independence. The SNP's central political purpose is independence, while Labour supports the United Kingdom. That creates a particular challenge.
Labour cannot simply ignore the constitutional debate because many voters see Scotland's future relationship with the rest of the UK as one of the defining political questions.
At the same time, Labour needs to demonstrate that it has something substantial to say about the issues that affect people's everyday lives.
The issues do not disappear because the constitutional question exists. There is time to rebuild
One advantage the new leader will have is time. The next scheduled Scottish Parliament election is not until 2031. That gives Labour several years to rebuild its organisation, develop policies and reconnect with communities.
The question is what it does with that time. Labour has traditionally been strongest when it has had a clear understanding of the communities it represents.
That means more than producing policies in Edinburgh. It means understanding why voters in former Labour areas have changed their minds and what they now expect from politicians.
For a party that once dominated Scottish politics, this may require a fairly fundamental reassessment.
There is no guarantee of a recovery
Political parties can recover. But there is no automatic route back.
The SNP's rise demonstrated that political loyalties which once appeared deeply entrenched can change.
Reform's performance in the 2026 Holyrood election also shows that Scotland's political landscape is no longer simply a contest between Labour, the SNP and the Conservatives. Reform won the same number of seats as Labour.
The new Labour leader therefore faces competition on several fronts. Some former Labour voters may have moved towards the SNP.
Others may now support Reform. Some may have moved to the Liberal Democrats or Greens. And some may simply have stopped voting.
Winning them back will require more than telling voters that Labour used to be important.
What could a Labour recovery look like?
It would probably begin with rebuilding trust rather than chasing short-term headlines. The new leader will need to decide what Scottish Labour stands for and communicate that consistently.
There is also a question about the relationship between Scottish Labour and the UK Labour government.
Being part of the governing party at Westminster provides opportunities, but it can also make it harder for Scottish Labour to distinguish itself when unpopular decisions are made in London.
The Scottish party therefore needs enough independence of voice to demonstrate that it understands Scottish circumstances while remaining part of the wider Labour movement.
That balance will not be easy.
The test is bigger than the leadership election
Michael Marra and Joe Fagan have both secured significant backing from Labour MPs, MSPs, trade unions and local parties, but the leadership contest itself is only the beginning.
The real test starts after the result. Can Labour explain why it lost ground? Can it rebuild support outside its traditional strongholds?
Can it develop policies which address Scotland's economic and social problems? And can it persuade voters who have moved elsewhere that Labour has something relevant to offer?
There is no reason to assume that Scottish Labour is permanently locked into its current position.
But neither is there evidence that a change of leader will automatically reverse its fortunes.
The party has several years before the next Holyrood election. That may be enough time to rebuild.
But it will require more than a new face at the top.
Scottish Labour needs to work out what it wants to be in modern Scotland, why voters should support it and, perhaps most importantly, why many voters who once did so stopped.
That is the real challenge facing whoever walks through the door as the new Scottish Labour leader.