20th September 2026
Diesel prices have become an increasingly uncomfortable issue for motorists and businesses as the disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies adds another layer of uncertainty to an already difficult energy market.
For people in Caithness, the problem is particularly visible at the forecourt.
Reported prices around Thurso have been approaching or exceeding £2 a litre at some stations, although there are significant differences between individual forecourts. That variation is important because there is no single "Caithness diesel price", and prices can change quickly as retailers receive new deliveries.
For rural motorists, however, even a few pence a litre makes a noticeable difference. Someone filling a 60-litre tank is paying £6 more for every 10p increase in the price of diesel.
And diesel is not just a motorists' problem.
It is the fuel that moves much of the food, building materials, machinery and other goods on which rural communities depend. Farmers, hauliers, tradespeople, delivery companies and many small businesses are particularly exposed to changes in diesel prices.
Saudi Arabia has suffered another major supply problem
The latest concern comes from Saudi Arabia.
The country's East-West oil pipeline, which carries crude from the oil-producing east of Saudi Arabia towards the Red Sea, has been disrupted following attacks on energy infrastructure.
The pipeline is particularly important because it provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative to sending oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
That alternative has become much more valuable during the current Middle East crisis.
Reports suggest that the pipeline carried several million barrels of oil a day before the disruption. The exact amount is important because the pipeline's maximum capacity is not the same as the amount actually flowing through it.
Saudi Arabia is now working to restore at least part of the system. There are reports that partial flows could resume sooner, although full repairs could take considerably longer.
That means the situation is serious, but it would be wrong to say that several million barrels a day have simply disappeared from the world market.
Saudi Arabia has other ways of moving oil, including using Gulf shipping routes and transferring oil between vessels. These alternatives are more complicated and potentially more expensive, however.
The problem became more serious for European refiners over the weekend.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly told some customers that they will not receive their normal October crude allocations. At least two European refining customers are understood to have been affected.
That does not mean European petrol stations are about to run out of diesel. But it does show how an infrastructure problem in Saudi Arabia can work its way through the international oil and refining system.
Europe is not running out of diesel – but the market is tight
It is important to separate three different things.
The first is the price of crude oil.
The second is the availability and cost of refined products such as diesel.
The third is whether motorists can actually obtain fuel at their local filling station.
They are connected, but they are not the same thing.
Europe has considerable oil and fuel stocks, and refiners can obtain crude from a variety of countries. Some European refiners are already using supplies from sources including the United States, Norway and Algeria to compensate for reduced Saudi deliveries.
That diversification is one reason why a reduction in Saudi crude supplies does not automatically translate into empty forecourts.
But diesel markets are under pressure. Refining capacity, shipping costs, inventories and the availability of particular types of crude all matter.
Diesel prices can therefore rise even when there is plenty of fuel available.
This is one reason motorists should be wary of dramatic claims about imminent shortages. A market can become considerably more expensive without actually running out of fuel.
What about Britain's emergency stocks?
Britain does have an emergency system for dealing with a serious disruption to oil supplies.
The UK is required, through its membership of the International Energy Agency, to maintain oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. The Government says total stocks were equivalent to around 120 days of net imports in July 2025.
These are not simply giant government-owned tanks waiting to be opened.
The system relies heavily on oil companies holding stocks, including arrangements involving stocks held overseas on Britain's behalf.
There are also established emergency measures that could be introduced if the situation became much more serious.
Government plans include the possibility of releasing emergency oil stocks, prioritising fuel deliveries to critical services, directing supplies towards key sectors and, in an extreme national shortage, limiting the amount of fuel that motorists could buy.
None of this means that such measures are currently being introduced.
The Government's own emergency plan makes clear that oil-stock releases would be used in the event of a significant disruption to global supply, while the more restrictive measures would be reserved for a severe national fuel shortage.
So there is an emergency plan. That is quite different from saying that Britain is currently facing an emergency fuel shortage.
Why does this matter for the North Sea?
The international disruption also puts Britain's North Sea oil and gas policy back under the spotlight.
The UK Government has confirmed that it will not issue new licences to explore for new oil and gas fields, although existing fields can continue operating and the Government says oil and gas will remain part of the UK's energy system for decades.
That policy is now being challenged from another direction.
Offshore Energies UK, the industry's trade body, has been calling for changes to taxation and regulation. It argues that ending the Energy Profits Levy earlier and allowing more North Sea development could encourage investment and support jobs and tax revenues.
The industry says changes could unlock substantial investment.
Those claims are disputed, and they should be treated as industry estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes.
There is also an important distinction between producing more oil and making petrol or diesel cheaper.
Britain is part of a global oil market. North Sea oil is traded internationally, and increasing British production would not automatically mean that motorists in Wick or Thurso suddenly paid a much lower price at the pump.
But domestic production can still matter for other reasons.
It can support jobs and supply chains, provide tax revenues, reduce some dependence on imported energy and provide another source of crude oil when international supply routes are disrupted.
The current Saudi problems demonstrate the value of having alternative sources and routes.
The Caithness question
For Caithness, this is less about taking a side in the argument over oil and gas and more about recognising how exposed a rural economy can be to international energy events.
We are a long way from the world's major oil markets, but the price of diesel at a filling station in Wick or Thurso is affected by events thousands of miles away.
A pipeline damaged in Saudi Arabia can eventually affect the cost of filling a van in Caithness.
That van may belong to a builder travelling to a job, a farmer travelling between fields, a delivery driver bringing goods north or a family simply trying to get to work.
There is another reason the North Sea debate matters locally.
Caithness has lived with the energy industry for generations, from Dounreay to the wider offshore and renewables sector. Decisions about Britain's future energy mix therefore have implications not only for fuel prices but also for investment, employment and the businesses that support the energy economy.
The current crisis does not provide a simple answer to the argument over North Sea oil and gas.
What it does demonstrate is that energy security remains a real economic issue.
The world has discovered again that energy supplies depend not just on how much oil and gas exists underground, but on pipelines, ports, shipping routes, refineries, storage facilities and political stability.
For motorists in Caithness, the immediate concern is much simpler.
It is the price displayed on the forecourt.
And for anyone running a diesel vehicle or diesel-dependent business, another period of high prices could become an increasingly significant cost as autumn approaches.