20th September 2026
For motorists in Caithness, the price of diesel is becoming difficult to ignore.
Diesel at some Thurso filling stations is already around £2 a litre, with prices varying considerably between forecourts. That is happening against a background of growing uncertainty in the European diesel market.
The immediate cause is thousands of miles away.
Saudi Arabia's important East-West oil pipeline has been damaged in attacks, disrupting the movement of crude towards the Red Sea. Reuters reports that Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refining customers that they will not receive their usual October crude deliveries, although Saudi Arabia is working to restore the pipeline.
There is an important qualification. Saudi Arabia is finding alternative ways of moving oil. Aramco is increasing exports through its Gulf facilities and using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port. That is helping to offset some of the disruption.
So this is not a straightforward story of the world suddenly running out of oil.
It is, however, a story about how vulnerable international energy supplies can become when infrastructure and shipping routes are attacked.
And that raises a bigger question for Britain.
The danger of a prolonged disruption
The European Commission said earlier this month that there was no immediate European oil supply security problem. Demand was still being met through refinery production and alternative imports, with stocks providing an additional cushion.
But it also warned that the market could become tighter in the coming weeks and months.
That distinction matters. There is a considerable difference between a tight market, rising prices, local shortages and an actual national shortage of fuel.
The latest developments in Saudi Arabia show why governments have to think beyond the next few days.
Further attacks were reported around Riyadh and at an Aramco facility in Yanbu on Saturday, with Yemen's Houthi movement claiming responsibility.
Nobody knows how long the disruption will continue, or whether it will become more serious. Saudi Arabia is clearly trying to keep supplies moving, but the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk that another piece of energy infrastructure or another transport route is affected.
That uncertainty is one reason the argument over Britain's own energy resources deserves renewed attention.
What does the North Sea have to do with it?
Britain cannot produce enough North Sea oil to isolate itself from world oil prices.
Even if more British oil is produced, crude is traded internationally. Increasing North Sea production would not suddenly bring diesel prices in Wick down to £1.50 a litre.
But that is not the only consideration.
Domestic production can generate tax revenue for the Treasury, support jobs and supply chains, maintain industrial skills and reduce some dependence on imported energy.
The tax contribution is already substantial. The House of Commons Library says taxes on North Sea oil and gas production raised £4.4 billion in 2024/25.
At a time when the Government faces pressure on public finances, that cannot simply be ignored.
Neither can the employment effect.
The North Sea industry is much larger than the people working directly on offshore platforms. It supports engineering companies, fabricators, marine services, transport firms, equipment manufacturers, construction businesses, specialist trades and professional services.
When money flows into those businesses, some of it is then spent elsewhere in the economy.
That multiplier effect becomes particularly important when other industries are losing jobs.
Once specialist businesses close and experienced workers leave an industry, rebuilding that capacity later can be difficult and expensive.
The Government's position
The Government's policy is not simply to shut down the North Sea.
Its North Sea Future Plan says existing oil and gas fields should be managed for their lifetimes, while new licences to explore for new oil and gas fields will not be issued. It is also allowing limited production connected to existing fields through its new Transitional Energy Certificates.
The Government argues that this provides a managed transition towards offshore wind, carbon capture, hydrogen and other industries while retaining the skills and infrastructure of the North Sea.
It also acknowledges the importance of the workforce. Its own figures say more than 70,000 jobs have been lost in the North Sea over the past decade.
The oil and gas industry takes a different view of how quickly investment should continue and argues that delays risk losing jobs, skills and supply-chain businesses.
The disagreement is therefore not simply about oil.
It is about how Britain manages the period between the energy system it has today and the one it hopes to have in the future.
The timing matters
There is an awkward coincidence in all of this.
Oil and gas companies have a strong commercial incentive to invest when energy prices are high. The Treasury also benefits from profitable North Sea production through taxation. At the same time, consumers are facing higher fuel and transport costs.
The Government therefore faces several competing pressures.
It has to consider energy security, household costs, public finances, employment, industrial capacity and its longer-term climate policy.
The Saudi disruption does not provide a simple answer to those questions. Nor does it prove that every proposed North Sea development should automatically go ahead.
But it does demonstrate something that can sometimes be forgotten in longer-term energy debates.
Energy security has a value of its own.
Britain will continue to need oil and gas for years even as renewable energy expands. The question is how much of that requirement should be met from domestic resources while the North Sea still has infrastructure, companies and skilled workers capable of producing it.
What does it mean for Caithness?
For Caithness, the North Sea debate is not just an Aberdeen issue.
Energy investment can create work for businesses across Scotland, including engineering, transport, fabrication, construction and specialist services. The same skills can also be valuable in offshore wind, nuclear, subsea work and other emerging industries.
That wider economic effect is easy to overlook when looking only at the number of people employed directly in oil and gas.
With diesel already approaching or exceeding £2 a litre in parts of Caithness, the international energy market is suddenly very visible on local forecourts.
The immediate crisis may ease. Saudi Arabia is working to restore disrupted infrastructure and alternative supplies are available.
But the events of the past few weeks have provided a powerful reminder that energy security cannot be judged simply by looking at today's price.
Britain has to decide how it values the resources, infrastructure, businesses and skills it already has while building the energy system of the future.
The North Sea may be in decline as an oil and gas basin.
That does not necessarily mean its economic importance has disappeared.
In fact, at a time of higher energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty, pressure on government finances and job losses in other parts of the economy, the question may be how Britain manages the North Sea decline rather than simply how quickly it ends.
Note
The prices are chaning all the time so even as we write this up it may already have changed again. We will check it all later.