21st September 2026
Diesel has become one of the more worrying parts of the current energy story, and the reasons go well beyond the price of crude oil.
For motorists in Caithness, the effect is already visible at the pumps. Recent Government Fuel Finder data showed diesel prices in Wick ranging from around 191p to 210p a litre, with the local average approaching £2 a litre. Prices in Thurso have also been around the £2 mark. Individual forecourts can, of course, change their prices quickly, so these figures should be regarded as a snapshot rather than a fixed local price.
The interesting thing about the present situation is that several separate problems are now coming together.
Saudi Arabia has suffered damage to its important East-West oil pipeline, which normally carries crude from the country's oil-producing region towards the Red Sea. Three pumping stations were reported damaged in the attacks, although Saudi Arabia has been working on ways of restoring supplies and diverting oil through other routes.
There is therefore no simple story of Saudi oil suddenly disappearing from the world market.
Saudi Aramco has been using alternative shipping arrangements, including ship-to-ship transfers near Oman, and traders say the company plans to increase Gulf exports during September and October. Those measures have helped limit the immediate impact on world crude supplies.
But the disruption is still significant for Europe.
Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco had told at least two European refining customers that they would receive no crude from Saudi Arabia in October following the pipeline attack. That does not mean European refineries are running out of crude, but it does mean that some refiners have to find alternative supplies.
And alternative supplies are not necessarily available at the same price or with the same ease.
At the same time, Russia's refining industry is under increasing pressure from Ukrainian drone attacks.
The International Energy Agency says repeated attacks have disrupted Russian refinery operations and reduced the country's ability to process crude into products such as diesel. The IEA has lowered its forecast for Russian refinery throughput for the rest of 2026 and says global seaborne diesel and gasoil exports were already 10% lower in the first eight months of this year than during the same period of 2025.
That is an important distinction.
The world is not simply short of crude oil. It is increasingly dealing with a shortage of refining capacity and refined products, particularly diesel.
This matters because diesel is not interchangeable with crude oil. A barrel of crude still has to be processed into usable fuels, and refineries have to be operating, supplied with the right crude and able to get the finished product to where it is needed.
The IEA says diesel markets have become particularly tight, with sharply lower exports from Russia and the Middle East only partly offset by increased supplies from the United States and Asia. Refinery margins for diesel in both Northwest Europe and the US have risen sharply.
That helps explain why diesel prices can rise considerably even though nobody is predicting that Britain is about to run out of fuel.
There is another reason not to panic.
Britain has emergency oil stocks. Under its International Energy Agency obligations, the UK is required to maintain oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports that could be released during a severe disruption to global supply. The Government reported that total stocks were equivalent to around 120 days of net imports in July 2025.
Those stocks are not simply sitting in government warehouses waiting for a crisis. Much of the stockholding obligation is placed on industry, and some stocks can be held abroad under agreements with other countries.
The existence of these stocks does not prevent prices rising. Their purpose is to provide an additional layer of security if there is a serious physical disruption to supply.
For Britain, there is also the question of the North Sea.
The current Government policy is not to issue new licences for new oil and gas exploration, although existing fields can continue operating. The argument over this policy has become more significant as the international energy situation has deteriorated.
The events in Saudi Arabia and Russia do not prove that Britain should produce more North Sea oil. Nor would more North Sea production automatically make diesel cheaper at a Wick filling station. Oil is traded in an international market.
But the disruption does underline why energy security is not simply about the environmental question or the price of crude.
It is also about where fuel comes from, how much refining capacity exists, whether shipping routes remain open and how many alternative suppliers are available when something goes wrong.
For Caithness, that matters because transport is difficult to avoid.
Diesel powers much of the road freight system that brings goods north. It is used by farmers, fishing businesses, tradespeople, hauliers and delivery companies. A higher diesel price therefore has effects far beyond the person filling up a family car.
That is why the current diesel story is worth watching closely.
It would be wrong to predict empty forecourts or a major shortage of food. Britain has considerable stocks, international suppliers and a food system that has proved capable of adapting to previous shocks.
But the combination of Russian refinery disruption, Middle Eastern supply problems and tight European diesel markets means that the price pressure is real.
For motorists, the most obvious sign is the figure on the pump.
For the wider economy, the consequences can be much less obvious because diesel costs are built into the price of getting almost everything else from one place to another.