22nd September 2026
Ukraine has launched another series of attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, with a fire reported at the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara following an overnight drone attack.
Russian regional authorities said dozens of drones were intercepted over the Samara region during the night of 21–22 September, while reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources said the Kuibyshev refinery was hit and caught fire. The full extent of the damage is not yet clear.
It comes only days after another major Russian refinery was forced to stop processing following a Ukrainian attack.
The Moscow refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft, suspended crude processing after drones struck the plant on 20 September. Industry sources told Reuters that both of its main crude distillation units were affected and that repairs could take several weeks. The refinery processed around 230,000 barrels of crude oil a day in 2024, producing about 2.9 million tonnes of petrol and 3.2 million tonnes of diesel during the year.
And Moscow is not an isolated case.
Earlier in September, the Syzran and Saratov refineries also stopped processing following Ukrainian drone attacks. At Syzran, the main crude distillation unit, representing about 71% of the refinery's capacity, was damaged. Repairs are expected to take at least a month. Saratov has also suffered repeated attacks and shutdowns.
The Yaroslavl refinery was subsequently hit, with processing also halted there.
Taken together, these attacks are beginning to have a measurable effect on Russia's ability to turn crude oil into finished fuels.
Russia has a refining problem
The International Energy Agency reported last week that Russia has around 6.5 million barrels a day of installed refining capacity across 32 major refineries.
But actual refinery throughput has fallen sharply.
The IEA says Russian refinery throughput fell to about 3.8 million barrels a day in June, the lowest level for more than 20 years and around 30% below the same month a year earlier.
Petrol production was estimated to be about 20% lower than in 2025, while diesel production was nearly 30% lower.
Russia has already responded by restricting exports of petrol, diesel and other fuels in an effort to protect its domestic market.
This is important because the issue is not simply how much oil Russia produces.
A country can continue producing crude oil but still experience a shortage of petrol or diesel if it cannot refine enough of that crude.
Could British fuel prices rise?
Potentially, but it is too early to say that the latest attack will produce another immediate jump in prices at British filling stations.
Oil is a global market, and Russia is a major oil producer. However, refinery disruptions affect the market for finished petroleum products, particularly diesel.
If Russian refineries remain out of action, Russia has fewer finished fuels available for export and may need to redirect more crude to other refineries.
At the same time, other countries have to find alternative supplies.
That can tighten the international market for diesel and petrol and increase refining margins.
For Britain, this matters because the price paid at a filling station is influenced by international crude oil prices, the cost of refining, supply and demand for finished fuel, shipping costs and the pound's exchange rate against the dollar.
So a Russian refinery being damaged does not translate directly into a particular increase in the price of diesel in Wick.
But if a number of refineries remain out of action at the same time, the cumulative effect can become much more significant.
Why diesel deserves particular attention
Diesel markets are already sensitive to disruption because diesel is widely used not only by motorists but by lorries, agriculture, construction, fishing and industry.
That makes it particularly important in rural areas such as Caithness.
A prolonged shortage of refined diesel would affect far more than people filling their cars. Transport costs can eventually feed through into the price of food, building materials and other goods.
There is therefore a reason to watch what happens in Russia, even though the attacks are thousands of miles away.
But there is also a reason not to panic.
Refineries can restart, supplies can be redirected and other producers can increase output where capacity is available. Oil markets also react to expectations, so prices can move before any physical shortage actually reaches Britain.
The latest attack on Kuibyshev is therefore another piece of a much larger story rather than proof that British petrol and diesel prices are about to surge.
A worrying autumn for fuel markets?
The timing is significant as the attacks come as Europe moves towards winter, when energy demand normally increases. They also come against a background of continuing disruption to international energy markets.
There is another concern. Ukraine and Russia are continuing to attack each other's energy infrastructure despite attempts to discuss an energy ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to meet US President Donald Trump at the United Nations, with an energy truce reportedly among the issues being discussed.
If attacks on energy infrastructure were reduced, some of the pressure on refining and fuel markets could ease.
If they continue or intensify, however, the damage to Russian refining capacity could become increasingly important to international fuel markets.
For motorists and households in Caithness, the sensible approach is therefore to watch rather than panic.
The latest refinery strike does not tell us what diesel will cost next week.
What matters is whether Russia's refining problems continue to accumulate, how quickly damaged plants can return to production, what happens to global oil supplies and whether the international diesel market becomes tighter.
Those are the figures worth watching over the coming weeks.
Sources: International Energy Agency; Reuters; Russian regional authorities.