22nd September 2026
Donald Trump has been putting pressure on Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, at a time when Russia continues to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
At first glance, it is a difficult position to understand. Why would the US president ask Ukraine to stop attacking facilities that are helping to keep Russia's war machine running, while Russian missiles and drones continue to hit Ukraine?
There is, however, a fairly straightforward answer to part of the question.
Diesel Diesel Diesel
Trump has reportedly been particularly concerned about the effect of the attacks on global diesel supplies and prices. In a recent conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the message was described by a Ukrainian official as being about “diesel, diesel ... diesel”. Trump has also said Russia has effectively lost control of its diesel industry as a result of the war.
This is not simply a political talking point. Russia's refining industry is under considerable pressure.
The International Energy Agency says Russia has around 6.5 million barrels a day of installed refining capacity across 32 major refineries. Yet Russian refinery throughput fell to about 3.8 million barrels a day in June, around 30% below a year earlier and the lowest level for more than two decades.
The IEA estimates that Russian petrol production is down around 20% compared with 2025, while diesel production has fallen by nearly 30%. Russia has responded by restricting fuel exports and even importing petrol from other countries.
Ukraine has deliberately been targeting the Russian refining system because it is an important part of the country's economy and war effort.
The campaign has become increasingly effective. The IEA says that during the first eight months of 2026 a Russian refinery was hit on average every three days. By late August, only five major Russian refineries remained untouched by Ukrainian drones.
The significance is not simply the immediate fire or damage.
Modern refineries contain complex processing units which turn crude oil into products such as diesel, petrol and aviation fuel. The IEA says relatively minor damage to a crude distillation unit can sometimes be repaired within weeks, but serious damage to more complicated units can take six to eight months to repair.
That gives Ukraine a way of imposing an economic cost on Russia without attacking Russian oil production itself.
But it also creates a problem for the rest of the world.
The global diesel market is already unusually tight. The IEA says Russian refinery disruption has come on top of severe losses of refined-product exports from the Gulf following the disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Combined Russian and Gulf diesel exports in August were 1.6 million barrels a day lower than in February, when those supplies accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne diesel and gasoil trade.
That helps explain why Trump is taking such an interest.
A refinery attack thousands of miles away can eventually affect the price paid by a farmer for diesel, a haulier for fuel or a motorist at a filling station. For Britain, it can also feed through into transport costs, food prices and heating-oil costs.
But there is another reason for Trump's position.
He appears to be trying to turn the energy issue into a possible mutual ceasefire.
French President Emmanuel Macron said after meeting Trump that they had discussed a moratorium on attacks against energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. Macron also said that strengthening Ukraine's air defences was important and that he hoped progress could be made during the United Nations General Assembly.
That is rather different from simply telling Ukraine to stop attacking Russia.
The idea would be that both sides stop attacking energy infrastructure.
That distinction matters enormously to Kyiv.
Ukraine has said it is prepared to move towards such an arrangement if Russia also stops attacking Ukrainian energy facilities and other critical infrastructure.
The difficulty is that Russia has continued its own attacks, while Ukraine's strikes against Russian refineries are now causing Russia genuine economic difficulties.
From Ukraine's perspective, the refinery campaign is therefore not just about damaging buildings. It is one of the few ways it can directly increase the economic cost of the war inside Russia.
This creates an awkward negotiating problem.
If Ukraine stops attacking Russian refineries while Russia continues attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the two sides would not really be making the same concession. Ukraine would be giving up an important source of pressure while Russia retained its ability to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.
That is why Kyiv has been emphasising that any energy ceasefire needs to be reciprocal.
There is also a wider economic reality behind Trump's concern. The current diesel squeeze is not being caused by Ukraine alone. The IEA points to disruption to Middle Eastern supplies, high refinery utilisation, maintenance and the wider effects of the conflict with Iran as well as the loss of Russian refined products.
So stopping Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries would not suddenly solve the world's diesel shortage.
It could, however, remove one source of pressure from an already tight market.
For households in Caithness, that is the part of the story worth watching. We have already seen how quickly international oil and refined-fuel markets can affect the price of diesel and heating oil in northern Scotland.
The question is therefore not simply why Trump wants Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries.
It is whether he can persuade both Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking energy infrastructure at the same time.
If that happened, it could reduce some of the pressure on fuel markets while also creating a small area of cooperation in a war where almost everything else remains contested.
If only one side stops, however, the situation becomes much more difficult.
And that is the real test of the proposal: not whether Ukraine can be persuaded to stop, but whether Russia can be persuaded to do the same.