22nd September 2026
It might seem an unlikely connection. A pensioner in Caithness looking at the level in their heating-oil tank has little obvious in common with somebody in Ukraine operating a drone thousands of miles away.
Yet this winter they could find themselves connected by something rather more mundane than politics: heating oil.
Ukraine has been stepping up attacks on Russian oil refineries, deliberately targeting an important part of the country's energy industry. Russia, meanwhile, continues to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, raising fears that Ukrainian households could face another difficult winter with damage to electricity and heating systems.
The result is an increasingly complicated international energy market in which events in the war can eventually reach households in northern Scotland.
The International Energy Agency says Russian refinery throughput fell to about 3.8 million barrels a day in June, around 30% below a year earlier and the lowest level for more than 20 years. Russian petrol production was down around 20%, while diesel production had fallen by nearly 30%.
The attacks have become remarkably frequent. The IEA says a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days during the first eight months of 2026. By late August, only five of Russia's major refineries had escaped Ukrainian drone attacks.
And the campaign is continuing.
A fire was reported at the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara following an overnight Ukrainian drone attack on 22 September. The full extent of the damage is not yet known.
The important thing for British households is that refineries do not simply produce petrol for cars. They produce the middle-distillate fuels that include diesel and heating oil.
That does not mean that every Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery will immediately add a few pence to the price of heating oil in Caithness. The international oil market is much more complicated than that. Crude oil prices, refinery capacity elsewhere, inventories, shipping costs, seasonal demand and the value of the pound all play a part.
But the supply of refined diesel and related products is already under pressure.
The IEA says global seaborne diesel and gasoil exports were about 10% lower in the first eight months of 2026 than a year earlier. Russian refinery disruption is only one part of the problem. Disruption to Middle Eastern supplies is another major factor, and European and North American refineries have limited ability to increase production quickly.
That is why the price of refined fuels can sometimes behave rather differently from the price of crude oil.
For someone with a gas boiler, this may be an interesting international story. For somebody in a rural part of Scotland with an oil boiler, it can become a household budgeting problem.
A 1,000-litre tank is not unusual, and filling it can mean a substantial four-figure bill when prices are high. If prices rise sharply, households may respond by buying smaller quantities, turning the heating down or waiting for prices to fall.
That is where our unlikely connection with Ukraine comes in.
Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are designed to put economic pressure on Russia. They are not intended to make life difficult for pensioners in Caithness.
But if those attacks contribute to tighter international supplies of refined fuel, they can have consequences far beyond Russia.
At the same time, Ukrainians face the opposite problem.
Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian electricity and energy infrastructure. As winter approaches, the Ukrainian government and its allies are preparing for the possibility of further attacks intended to disrupt power and heating.
French President Emmanuel Macron has said France will provide further support for Ukraine's air defences and help it prepare for the winter, warning about the threat posed by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
There is therefore an extraordinary symmetry.
Ukrainians are worried about having enough energy to heat their homes. Scottish pensioners are worried about being able to afford enough heating oil to heat theirs.
The circumstances are obviously very different. Ukrainians are living through a war on their own soil, while Scottish households are dealing with the economic consequences of an international energy market.
But both are exposed to the consequences of the same conflict.
There is another twist.
Donald Trump has been pressing Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, partly because of the effect the attacks are having on diesel supplies and prices. A possible mutual halt to attacks on energy infrastructure has also been discussed.
From Ukraine's perspective, however, stopping attacks on Russian refineries only makes sense if Russia stops attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure as well.
That is why the proposed energy ceasefire is so interesting. It is not simply a question of military tactics. It is also about the world's fuel supply.
For Scottish households using heating oil, the hope would be that any reduction in attacks would ease pressure on refined-fuel markets.
But there is no guarantee of that. The current diesel squeeze has several causes, and Ukraine's attacks are only one part of a much larger global problem.
Scotland does have some protection for pensioners. Around 879,000 pensioners in Scotland are expected to receive the Pension Age Winter Heating Payment this winter, worth between £105.55 and £316.70 depending on household circumstances.
But that is help towards the cost of heating, not a guarantee that a household can fill its oil tank.
And this is perhaps why the title of this article is not quite as fanciful as it first sounds.
Heating-oil pensioners are certainly not literally allies of Ukraine.
But if Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries help tighten the market for diesel and heating oil, while Russian attacks on Ukraine threaten the country's own winter heating supplies, then two very different groups of people have acquired an unexpected connection.
A pensioner in Caithness may never think about Russian refinery capacity when deciding whether to switch the boiler on.
This winter, however, events in Ukraine could make that decision a little more expensive.
And somewhere in the background, the level of fuel in that oil tank may be part of the same international story.