26th September 2026
The war between the United States and Iran has now been going on for nearly seven months, and the question is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid: how does it end?
There is no obvious military victory in sight, while the economic consequences are spreading well beyond the Middle East.
For people in Caithness, this may seem like a distant conflict. But the price of diesel, heating oil, transport and many of the goods arriving in our shops can ultimately be affected by what happens thousands of miles away.
And there is now a potentially significant diplomatic development.
Iran has proposed a seven-day process which it says could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to fighting across the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the proposal had been passed to the United States through Qatari mediators.
Under the Iranian proposal, reopening the Strait would be linked to the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian funds and waiving oil sanctions.
Iran says that if Washington is serious about reaching an agreement, the arrangements are ready to begin.
But Reuters reported on Saturday that the Wall Street Journal said President Donald Trump had rejected the proposal and told aides he expected bombing to resume after the US midterm elections in November. The White House position and the diplomatic situation could still change.
So there is a possible route towards an exit, but there is no agreement on that route.
Hormuz is the key
The Strait of Hormuz has become the central bargaining point.
It is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, and the conflict has dramatically reduced the amount of shipping passing through it.
Reuters reported earlier this week that only 17 commodity vessels crossed the Strait over one weekend, compared with a pre-war average of around 125 vessels a day. Some oil is still moving, but the disruption has fundamentally changed the cost and difficulty of transporting energy.
That helps explain why the economic consequences have been so severe.
The world's oil and refined-fuel markets are not simply dealing with a shortage of crude oil. They are also dealing with disrupted shipping, damaged refineries, reduced exports and exceptionally tight supplies of diesel.
Reuters has reported that European diesel futures have risen to more than twice their level at the beginning of 2026, while US retail diesel prices have passed $6 a gallon for the first time. Global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight into 2027.
For Caithness, that matters.
A lorry bringing food to Wick or Thurso does not run on Iranian oil. But the cost of operating that lorry is affected by the international fuel market.
The same applies to farmers, builders, fishermen, tradespeople, delivery companies and businesses which depend on road transport.
The strange economics of a war with no easy exit
The longer the conflict continues, the more difficult the calculation becomes for everyone involved.
The United States wants Iran to make significant concessions, including over its nuclear programme and regional military activities.
Iran wants the US military pressure and economic blockade removed and does not want to surrender control over matters it regards as its sovereign rights.
Neither side wants to appear to have lost.
That makes a conventional peace agreement difficult.
A more realistic solution might therefore involve a series of steps rather than one grand settlement.
The Strait could reopen.
The fighting could stop.
Some sanctions could be relaxed.
International monitoring could be introduced.
And the much harder questions about Iran's nuclear programme, regional security and long-term relations with the United States could then be negotiated separately.
In fact, Reuters reported this week that US and Iranian officials have already been discussing a possible phased arrangement involving the reopening of Hormuz and an end to the US blockade.
The difficulty is that the two governments remain far apart on the terms.
The economic pressure is becoming part of the story
There is another reason why the eventual exit matters.
The war has become an economic problem as well as a military one.
Diesel prices in the United States have reached record levels. European diesel prices have risen sharply. Refiners are operating at very high utilisation rates, yet inventories remain unusually low.
The result is that businesses are paying more to move goods and consumers eventually face some of those costs through higher prices.
For a remote area such as Caithness, transport costs are particularly important.
We already have longer journeys to major markets than businesses in much of mainland Britain. Goods have to travel north, and many businesses have to travel south for supplies, customers, services or distribution.
A sustained period of high diesel prices therefore does not just affect motorists filling their cars.
It can eventually appear in the price of food, building materials, deliveries, agricultural inputs and almost anything else that has to be transported.
What would happen if the war ended?
This is where there could eventually be some good news.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopened properly and shipping returned towards normal levels, some of the extraordinary risk premium built into oil and fuel markets could begin to disappear.
That would not necessarily mean diesel suddenly returning to £1.30 or £1.40 a litre.
The global diesel market has suffered other disruptions, including problems affecting Russian refining and exports. Inventories are also unusually low.
But removing one of the world's biggest supply risks would give the market considerably more room to breathe.
Markets have already demonstrated how sensitive prices are to diplomatic developments. When there have been signs that Hormuz might reopen, oil prices have fallen. When hopes of an agreement have faded, prices have risen again.
America therefore faces a difficult choice
The United States can continue trying to force Iran into accepting its demands.
But the longer the conflict continues, the greater the military, economic and political costs become.
Alternatively, Washington can negotiate a settlement which allows both sides to claim that important objectives have been achieved.
That second option would not necessarily satisfy everyone.
But wars rarely end with everyone getting everything they wanted.
The challenge for any government is eventually to decide what its achievable objectives are and whether continuing to fight is more likely to achieve them than negotiating.
And that may be the question America increasingly faces.
Can it find a way out that allows Washington to claim that it achieved its objectives, allows Iran to avoid appearing to surrender, and at the same time gets the Strait of Hormuz operating normally again?
For people in Caithness, the answer matters for a surprisingly simple reason.
It could eventually help determine whether the extraordinary rise in diesel and other fuel costs is a temporary shock or becomes part of the new cost of doing business.
The war may be thousands of miles away.
But the price of ending it could be felt every time a lorry fills its tank in Thurso or Wick.