28th September 2026
For weeks there have been warnings that diesel could pass £2 a litre.
Now it has happened.
The average UK diesel price has reached a record 199.18p a litre, according to the RAC, passing the previous record set in 2022. Filling an average 55-litre family car now costs close to £110.
For motorists who have to drive every day, this is not a small increase that can simply be ignored.
But there is another question that could become increasingly important as we move towards winter.
What will families stop buying in order to pay for the fuel they cannot avoid?
A household can decide not to go out for a meal. It can postpone buying a new television, reduce subscriptions, cut back on days out or delay a non-essential purchase.
It is much harder to decide not to drive to work, take children to school, visit relatives, attend a hospital appointment or travel to a shop when living in a rural area.
The same problem applies to heating.
Heating oil is not covered by the household energy price cap and its price is heavily influenced by international oil markets. The House of Commons Library says heating-oil prices rose sharply earlier this year following disruption to international fossil-fuel markets.
For somebody living in an off-grid home, there is no simple alternative when the oil tank is getting low and winter is approaching.
That leaves households having to make choices.
Perhaps the most sensible approach is not to think simply in terms of "cutting spending", but of protecting the spending that cannot easily be avoided.
Fuel, heating, food and essential bills have to come first for many households. Other spending then becomes the area where savings have to be found.
That might mean fewer journeys, more careful shopping, fewer meals out, postponing purchases or using savings that had originally been intended for something else.
But there is a wider economic consequence.
If thousands of households do exactly that, the money does not disappear. It simply moves away from other businesses.
A family spending an extra £50 a month on diesel has £50 less to spend elsewhere. If another household is spending an extra £100 or £150 filling a heating-oil tank, that too reduces the money available for other purchases.
For shops, cafés, pubs, garages, tradespeople and other local businesses, this can eventually become another form of economic pressure.
And diesel does not only affect motorists.
Almost everything that has to be transported depends to some extent on fuel. Lorries, vans, agricultural machinery, construction equipment and many service vehicles all use diesel.
The RAC has warned that higher diesel costs affect not only drivers but also goods and services that depend on diesel-powered transport, with increased costs likely to feed through to consumers.
That means the household may eventually face the same problem twice: paying more directly for fuel while also paying more for some of the goods and services transported using that fuel.
Then there is the part of the equation that nobody can confidently predict.
How long will the wars and supply disruptions continue?
The current diesel problem is not being caused by one single factor. The continuing conflict involving Iran and the wider disruption to oil and refined-fuel supplies are putting pressure on international markets. At the same time, the war in Ukraine continues to affect Russian refining and diesel exports. Reuters reported last week that global diesel markets were already exceptionally tight, with refineries operating close to capacity and limited spare capacity available to respond to further disruption.
That makes forecasting particularly difficult.
A diplomatic breakthrough could eventually send oil prices lower. A further disruption to supplies could push them higher. The same applies to heating oil.
For households, that uncertainty makes budgeting particularly difficult.
Nobody wants to spend money unnecessarily if fuel prices might fall next month. But waiting for prices to fall can also be risky when the heating tank is nearly empty or the car is essential for getting to work.
Perhaps the most useful household question this winter will therefore be a simple one:
What spending can I reduce without reducing the things my family genuinely needs?
That is very different from simply saying that everyone should cut back.
For some households there may be considerable discretionary spending that can be trimmed. For others, almost every pound is already committed.
And that is where the £2 diesel price becomes more than a motoring story.
It becomes a story about the household budget, local businesses and how much money remains after the essentials have been paid.
The worrying part is that we still do not know where the fuel-price story will end.
The wars continue, supply routes remain vulnerable and international oil markets can change very quickly.
For households already feeling the squeeze, the question may soon be less about whether fuel is expensive and more about what else has to be sacrificed to pay for it.
Fo those lucky enough to own an electric car the price of petrol and diesel may not be an immediate problem but it will still be reflected in most other things purchased.
And let's not forget about electricy and gas prices rising on 1 October and probably and even bigger riseon 1 January 2027.
Oh yes and there is a budget on 28 October - please help us Mr Healey.