30th September 2026
When you think about El Niño, the last thing you might expect it to affect is the price of a pair of trainers in a shop in Wick, Thurso or Inverness.
Yet there is a surprisingly long chain connecting an unusually warm Pacific Ocean with the price of everyday goods in Britain.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which sea temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become unusually warm. That changes atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world. The consequences can include drought in some regions and excessive rainfall and flooding in others.
Normally that might seem like a problem for meteorologists and farmers. But modern supply chains mean that weather in one part of the world can eventually turn up on a British shop shelf as a higher price.
Trainers provide a good example.
A modern pair of trainers can contain cotton, natural rubber and a range of synthetic materials derived from oil and gas. The materials are manufactured, assembled and transported, often through several countries, before eventually reaching British consumers.
Cotton is particularly interesting because the current El Niño is creating concerns about production in several major cotton-growing regions. Recent industry analysis suggests that countries responsible for around half of global cotton production could experience significant weather disruption during the 2026/27 season.
That does not mean cotton prices will automatically soar. Farmers can sometimes compensate for poor conditions in one region with better production elsewhere, while manufacturers may have stocks already purchased at earlier prices.
But if production falls sufficiently, the balance between supply and demand changes.
And cotton is only one part of the story.
Natural rubber is another important material for footwear, particularly in soles and other components. Much of the world's natural rubber comes from Southeast Asia, where weather conditions can affect tapping and harvesting.
There are already signs that the rubber market is responding to weather concerns. The European Rubber Journal reported in September that natural-rubber futures had been supported by stronger crude oil prices and El Niño-related concerns about dry weather and drought.
The International Rubber Consortium has also reported that unusually high temperatures and rainfall disruption associated with El Niño have been affecting rubber production and tapping schedules in Southeast Asia.
That does not mean the price of a pair of trainers in Britain will suddenly rise because rubber prices have increased by a particular amount.
The relationship is much more complicated.
A manufacturer might have negotiated its rubber supplies months in advance. A large footwear company may have hedged some of its commodity costs. A retailer might decide to absorb part of an increase rather than risk losing customers.
There is also competition between materials. Manufacturers can sometimes substitute synthetic rubber or other materials for natural rubber, depending on the design and performance required.
But eventually somebody has to pay for higher raw-material, manufacturing and transport costs.
And that is where El Niño becomes part of the wider inflation story.
Consider what happens if several pressures arrive at the same time.
Cotton becomes more expensive because weather has reduced production. Natural rubber becomes more expensive because drought or excessive rainfall disrupts harvesting. Oil prices increase, raising the cost of synthetic materials and manufacturing. Shipping becomes more expensive. Energy costs rise in manufacturing countries.
None of those increases on its own necessarily makes a dramatic difference to the price of a pair of trainers.
Together, however, they can.
This is one reason inflation can sometimes feel worse to households than the headline inflation rate suggests. Consumers do not experience inflation as a single percentage.
They experience it when the supermarket bill is a few pounds higher, the taxi fare increases, the heating oil costs more, the parcel costs more to deliver and a pair of trainers that used to cost £60 now costs £70 or £75.
The really interesting question is how quickly the effects of this year's El Niño will feed through.
Commodity markets often move ahead of actual shortages because traders anticipate what might happen to future production. The physical consequences can take considerably longer.
That creates the possibility of a two-stage effect.
First, prices of commodities such as cotton and rubber can rise because markets become concerned about future supply.
Later, if harvests actually suffer, manufacturers may face higher costs when they replace existing stocks.
This distinction is important because it prevents us from blaming every increase in the price of an everyday product on El Niño.
A pair of trainers can become more expensive for dozens of reasons. Brand pricing, fashion, wages, exchange rates, transport, energy, tariffs, retail rents and marketing costs can all play a part.
El Niño is therefore not a magic explanation for rising prices.
It is better understood as another potential pressure on a global supply chain that is already vulnerable to disruption.
And there is another lesson here for Britain.
The country does not need to grow cotton or rubber for British households to feel the effects of a poor harvest thousands of miles away.
Britain imports an enormous range of manufactured goods and relies on international supply chains for many of the materials that go into them.
That means a climate event in the Pacific can eventually become an inflation problem in Britain.
The effect may be almost invisible at first.
A commodity trader notices a change in the price of rubber. A manufacturer reviews its costs. A purchasing manager renegotiates a contract. A shipping company changes its charges. A retailer reviews its margins.
Several months later, a consumer walks into a shop and wonders why the trainers cost more than they did last year.
That is the fascinating part of modern inflation.
Sometimes the cause is sitting on a supermarket shelf. Sometimes it is an oilfield, a rubber plantation or a cotton field thousands of miles away.
And sometimes, it begins with the temperature of the Pacific Ocean.
For British consumers already facing higher energy, food and transport costs, the lesson is that there may be more inflationary pressures working their way through global supply chains than are immediately visible.
El Niño will not necessarily make your next pair of trainers more expensive.
But it is another reminder that the price of everyday goods can depend on events happening on the other side of the world.