1st October 2026
There is a worrying pattern developing on Britain's high streets.
It is no longer simply a matter of one retailer getting into trouble, closing a few shops and disappearing from the headlines.
Retailers, restaurants, pubs and other businesses are increasingly being squeezed from both directions.
Their customers are under pressure from the cost of living and are becoming more careful about what they spend. At the same time, the businesses themselves are facing higher wages, energy bills, rents, business rates, insurance and other operating costs.
That combination can be particularly dangerous for businesses operating on relatively small profit margins.
The Bank of England's latest assessment of business conditions makes uncomfortable reading. Its agents report that consumer spending remains subdued, with households becoming increasingly careful and value-conscious. Hospitality businesses are reporting challenging trading conditions, while higher energy and other input costs are being only partly offset by weak demand and retail competition.
The result is a difficult question.
How many more familiar names can Britain's high streets withstand?
The warning signs are already visible
Some of the names facing difficulties are familiar to almost everybody.
Poundland is perhaps one of the clearest examples of the pressures reaching even the discount end of the market.
The retailer operates around 600 stores and employs roughly 12,000 people. It has already closed 149 stores and cut around 2,200 jobs during its restructuring. Its owners are now looking for a buyer, with a management-backed bid among the possibilities being discussed.
That is significant because Poundland's traditional customer is hardly the customer with unlimited spending power.
If even a discount retailer is struggling, it illustrates how difficult conditions can become when costs rise and consumers have little money left to spend.
Another name undergoing a major transformation is TG Jones, the successor to WH Smith's former high-street business.
Around 150 stores are expected to close as part of the restructuring, with the company seeking lower rents from landlords. The changes illustrate another problem facing traditional high-street retailers: a shop may still have customers but simply may not generate enough profit to justify the cost of occupying the building.
And then there are the businesses that have already disappeared from parts of the high street.
Claire's has closed all 154 of its standalone UK and Irish stores, resulting in around 1,300 job losses. Its concessions, including outlets inside other retailers, are continuing. Weak trading and competition from lower-priced online retailers were among the problems facing the business.
TGI Fridays has also been shrinking. Sixteen UK restaurants closed in January, leaving 33 restaurants operating in Britain. Revolution Bars has also announced closures as the hospitality sector struggles with higher costs and changing consumer behaviour.
These are not isolated events.
They are symptoms of a wider problem.
Hospitality may be particularly exposed
Restaurants, pubs and cafés have an awkward business model.
They need staff, premises, heating, electricity, food, insurance and other inputs before they can sell a single meal.
If customers decide to eat out once rather than twice a month, or choose a cheaper restaurant, the business feels the effect immediately.
The Bank of England says hospitality firms are facing challenging trading conditions, with businesses trying to absorb higher energy, fuel and commodity costs wherever they can. Some can pass those costs on, but others cannot because customers are already under pressure.
That creates a vicious circle.
Put prices up and some customers stay away.
Keep prices down and the business absorbs the higher costs.
Either way, the margin gets squeezed.
This helps explain the problems being experienced by names such as Pizza Hut, Franco Manca, Beefeater and Brewers Fayre, as well as smaller independent restaurants and cafés that do not have the financial resources of a national chain.
Costa Coffee faces a somewhat different situation because of its scale and ownership, but its thousands of outlets operate in precisely the environment where consumers are deciding whether another coffee or lunch is worth the money.
Retailers face the same dilemma
The problem is not confined to hospitality.
John Lewis has repeatedly warned about the difficult retail environment, while Shoe Zone has highlighted the pressure created by rising costs and the difficulties facing consumers.
The British Retail Consortium reported in September that shop-price inflation had eased slightly, but warned that retailers were continuing to absorb higher energy bills, employment costs and other expenses. It said businesses were reaching the limits of what they could absorb.
The problem becomes particularly acute when retailers are unable to pass all those costs on to customers.
A supermarket can sell enormous volumes with relatively small margins.
A discount retailer can attract customers precisely because it promises low prices.
A restaurant needs customers to come through the door regularly.
A shoe shop needs people to decide they need new footwear now rather than next month.
The less disposable income households have, the harder each of these business models becomes.
Even successful businesses are feeling the pressure
This is perhaps the most important point.
The story should not be interpreted as meaning that every company experiencing higher costs is about to collapse.
Far from it.
Some businesses remain profitable and are expanding.
Greggs, for example, has announced plans to close four factories affecting potentially 740 jobs, but it is simultaneously planning further shop openings and reported sales growth in its latest quarter.
That is not a company disappearing from Britain's high streets.
It is a company changing its business model to cope with changing economics.
That distinction matters.
A business can be perfectly viable while closing shops.
It can also be profitable while reducing staff or renegotiating rents.
The danger is therefore not simply bankruptcy.
It is the gradual disappearance of the physical shops, restaurants and services that make a town centre function.
What does this mean for smaller towns?
This is where the story becomes particularly important for places such as Wick and Thurso.
A national retailer deciding to close 20 stores may regard the decision as a small part of a huge portfolio.
For a smaller town, however, losing one recognisable shop can have a much bigger effect.
The empty unit can remain vacant.
Footfall falls.
Other businesses lose passing customers.
Another retailer eventually decides that the town is no longer attractive enough.
The process can become cumulative.
This is why the health of the high street cannot be measured simply by asking how many shops remain open today.
The more important question is whether enough businesses are making enough money to continue operating tomorrow.
The cost-of-living squeeze works both ways
There is an uncomfortable irony here.
Consumers want lower prices because their household budgets are being squeezed.
Businesses need higher prices because their own costs are rising.
Neither side is necessarily doing anything wrong.
The supermarket customer wants cheaper food.
The shop needs to pay its employees.
The restaurant customer wants an affordable meal.
The restaurant needs to pay its electricity bill, rent, food suppliers and staff.
The café customer thinks £4 for a coffee is expensive.
The café owner may discover that a large proportion of that £4 disappears before the coffee has even been served.
This is why the current situation is more complicated than simply blaming businesses for raising prices or consumers for spending less.
The entire system is under pressure.
And the pressure may not be over
The coming months could be particularly important.
Businesses are heading into the crucial Christmas trading period while households are facing higher energy costs and continuing uncertainty about food and fuel prices.
The government also faces pressure over business taxation and rates.
The British Retail Consortium and UKHospitality say retail and hospitality are carrying an unusually heavy business-tax burden, with their analysis suggesting that retailers pay 72p in business taxes for every £1 of pre-tax profit and hospitality businesses 82p. Those figures are industry-group calculations and should be viewed in that context, but they demonstrate why the sectors are pressing the government for relief.
The Chancellor's Budget will therefore matter not only to households but also to the businesses that provide many of the jobs and services on Britain's high streets.
Watch the high street, not just the headlines
Perhaps the best way of judging what is happening is to look beyond the biggest names.
Watch the empty units.
Watch reduced opening hours.
Watch restaurants quietly disappear.
Watch shops replacing full-time staff with fewer employees.
Watch businesses asking landlords for rent reductions.
Watch whether independent businesses survive another winter.
Those signs can tell us more about the health of a town centre than the occasional announcement that consumer spending has increased.
Because spending measured in pounds can rise even when people are buying fewer things if prices are rising.
What matters to the shopkeeper is whether enough customers are coming through the door and whether enough money remains after all the bills have been paid.
And at the moment, there are increasing signs that the answer is becoming more difficult.
Britain's high streets are not necessarily heading for collapse.
But they are being squeezed.
And the businesses most exposed are likely to be those with high fixed costs, low profit margins, heavy staffing requirements and customers who are already watching every pound.
That includes discount retailers, fashion and footwear stores, cafés, restaurants, pubs and leisure businesses.
The question now is how many can absorb another year of rising costs while their customers have less money available to spend.
The next high-street crisis may not arrive as one dramatic collapse. It may arrive one shop, one restaurant and one empty unit at a time.