6th October 2026
For Scotland's farmers and crofters, the next 12 months could be rather more important than they first appear.
There is no single crisis waiting around the corner.
Instead, several changes are arriving at roughly the same time.
There is a new agricultural support system, continuing pressure on farm costs, changes to inheritance tax, concerns about imports, animal disease, environmental requirements, uncertain weather and the ever-present question of whether the price received for livestock and produce will cover the cost of producing it.
For farmers in the north of Scotland, there is an additional problem.
Many are operating in some of the most difficult agricultural conditions in Britain, where distances are long, growing seasons are shorter and alternatives to farming can be limited.
So what should farmers and crofters be watching over the coming year?
The biggest change may be the support system
Scotland is now moving through the biggest change to agricultural support for decades.
The Scottish Government's new Rural Support Plan runs from 2026 to 2031 and introduces a four-tier system of support. The intention is to move away from the old EU Common Agricultural Policy arrangements while avoiding a sudden financial cliff edge for farmers and crofters.
That is important because agricultural support is not a minor addition to many Scottish farm businesses.
The Scottish Budget provides more than £700 million for agricultural support and related spending in 2026-27, including basic payments, greening payments, Less Favoured Area Support and investment schemes.
The question for an individual farmer, however, is much simpler.
How much will I receive, what will I have to do to receive it and will it cover the cost of doing it?
That is where the detail matters.
Environmental requirements are becoming part of the deal
The direction of travel is clear.
Farm support is increasingly being linked not just to producing food but also to climate, biodiversity, soil and wider environmental objectives.
For example, from 2026 farmers and crofters with more than 15 hectares of arable land must dedicate 5% of their land to Ecological Focus Areas under the enhanced greening requirements.
That rises to 7% in 2027.
For a large arable farm this may be manageable.
For a smaller northern business, every acre can have an economic purpose.
The argument therefore becomes less about whether environmental protection is desirable and more about who pays for it and how much productive land can be taken out of production without reducing farm income.
Then there is Bluetongue
This is probably the most immediate problem facing livestock farmers.
On 3 October, the Bluetongue Restricted Zone was extended to cover the whole of Scotland.
The immediate reason is not that the whole country has suddenly become infected.
Rather, the Scottish Government and farming organisations agreed that having the same disease status across Scotland would simplify livestock movements during the important autumn trading period.
That is helpful.
But the underlying disease remains a serious concern.
The UK is experiencing its worst recorded bluetongue season, with more than 2,200 cases recorded since July. The disease has now crossed into Scotland and has been detected as far north as Aberdeenshire.
For northern sheep and cattle farmers, this is not simply another regulation to read.
Disease can affect breeding, livestock movements, sales, animal health costs and ultimately the value of the herd or flock.
And there is an uncomfortable possibility that this will become a more regular feature of farming as temperatures rise.
Good livestock prices cannot be taken for granted
There is some genuinely good news here.
Scottish agricultural output reached a record £5.1 billion in 2025, helped by strong prices for livestock and milk.
Beef output value increased substantially and sheep and lamb output also rose strongly.
That provides an important reminder that Scottish farming is not an industry in terminal decline.
But high prices create their own problem.
A farmer making investment decisions today cannot safely assume that today's livestock price will still be available in three or five years.
Feed costs, fertiliser, fuel, machinery, buildings, insurance, veterinary bills and labour can all change.
A farm can therefore have a very good year on paper while the farmer remains cautious about committing to major expenditure.
The cost of everything still matters
There is a tendency to talk about agriculture in terms of the price of a sheep, a bullock or a litre of milk.
But farmers buy an enormous amount of equipment and services to produce those things.
A tractor costing tens of thousands of pounds.
Fuel.
Fertiliser.
Feed.
Veterinary treatment.
Fencing.
Buildings.
Contractors.
Insurance.
Electricity.
Transport.
The problem for northern farmers is that distance can add another layer of cost.
A machinery dealer, contractor, abattoir, veterinary practice or agricultural supplier may be many miles away.
That is one reason why the economics of farming in Caithness, Sutherland, Ross-shire and the islands cannot simply be compared with farming in the more productive agricultural areas of eastern Scotland.
Inheritance tax has become less frightening, but has not gone away
The changes to agricultural and business property relief have caused considerable concern among farming families.
The UK Government subsequently increased the threshold for 100% relief to £2.5 million per person, with the possibility of up to £5 million for qualifying assets between spouses or civil partners.
That was a significant change from the original proposal and will remove or reduce the impact for many family farms.
But some larger land-based businesses remain exposed, particularly where the value of the assets is high but the annual income generated by the farm is relatively modest.
That creates an unusual problem for agriculture.
A farm can be asset rich but cash poor.
The land may be worth millions.
The annual profit may be nothing like what the land value suggests.
That makes succession planning increasingly important.
What happens when the farmer wants to retire?
This may become one of the biggest issues of all.
Scotland has an ageing farming population.
A farmer who has spent 40 or 50 years building up a business may want to hand it to a son, daughter or another successor.
But the next generation needs to see a viable business at the end of the process.
If the economics are too difficult, young people may decide that farming is simply too risky.
And once a farm loses its next generation, getting that generation back can be extremely difficult.
This is particularly important in the Highlands and Islands, where a working farm or croft is not merely a business.
It can be part of the social structure of a community.
Crofters face a different version of the same problem
Crofters often operate on a much smaller economic scale.
That can make access to grants and investment support particularly important.
The Scottish Budget includes £4.4 million for the Crofting Agricultural Grant Scheme and Croft House Grant Scheme.
But the basic problem remains.
A grant can help pay for an investment.
It does not necessarily provide the cash needed to keep the business running while that investment is being made.
And crofting sits at the intersection of agriculture, housing, land reform, tourism, environmental policy and community development.
That makes the future potentially exciting.
It also makes it complicated.
Weather remains the farmer's uncontrollable variable
Politicians can change subsidy arrangements.
Markets can change.
Tax rules can change.
Farmers can change how they operate.
Nobody can negotiate with the weather.
A wet winter can damage fields and increase costs.
A dry spring can affect grass growth.
A cold spell can affect lambing.
A storm can damage buildings and fences.
Another exceptionally warm summer can increase disease risks.
The Scottish Government itself recognises climate change and extreme weather as growing challenges for agriculture.
For northern farmers, where the growing season is already shorter, weather can have an outsized impact.
There is also the question of imports
British farmers increasingly find themselves asking a perfectly reasonable question. If we are expected to meet higher standards, will imported food have to meet comparable standards?
Farmers cannot control what happens at the border.
They can only control how they produce their own food.
If domestic production becomes more expensive because of regulation, environmental requirements or higher welfare standards, cheaper imports can put pressure on farmgate prices.
There is an important balance here.
Britain needs affordable food.
But it also needs a domestic farming industry capable of producing food when international markets become disrupted.
The experience of the pandemic and recent international conflicts has demonstrated that food security cannot simply be assumed.
The north has one advantage
It may sound strange to describe it as an advantage, but northern farming has something increasingly valuable.
Land.
Scotland's Highlands and Islands contain enormous areas of land that can produce food, support livestock, store carbon, generate renewable energy and provide environmental benefits.
The challenge is working out how all those uses can coexist without making agriculture economically unviable.
That is going to become increasingly important.
Farmers are likely to be asked to produce food while also improving biodiversity, protecting peatland, reducing emissions and managing the landscape.
Those objectives do not always conflict.
But when they do, somebody has to decide who pays for the difference.
So what could the next year look like?
It may not be a dramatic year.
There may be no single event that suddenly transforms Scottish agriculture.
Instead, farmers and crofters could find themselves making dozens of relatively small decisions.
Do I invest in new machinery?
Do I expand?
Do I reduce the size of the herd?
Do I vaccinate?
Do I take another environmental scheme?
Do I diversify?
Do I bring the next generation into the business?
Do I borrow money while interest rates remain relatively high?
Do I retire?
Do I sell?
Do I carry on?
For some businesses, those decisions will be straightforward.
For others, they could determine whether the next generation has a farm to inherit.
The bigger question for Scotland
There is a tendency to think of agricultural policy as a matter for farmers.
It isn't.
Everyone eats.
And virtually everyone would prefer at least some of their food to be produced relatively close to home.
Scotland is providing substantial financial support to farmers and crofters because society wants more than simply the cheapest possible food.
It wants food production, functioning rural communities, environmental protection and land managed for the long term.
Those objectives come with a cost.
The important question is whether that cost is recognised clearly enough in the way farming is supported.
Northern Scotland may be the real test
The central belt can perhaps absorb changes that are much harder for remote communities to absorb.
A farmer near a major population centre may have more potential markets, more contractors, more suppliers and more opportunities to diversify.
A crofter in Caithness, Sutherland, Orkney or the Western Isles has fewer options.
That is why the next 12 months could be particularly revealing.
The new Scottish agricultural support system is being introduced.
Environmental requirements are increasing.
Bluetongue has reached Scotland.
Inheritance tax has changed.
Farm costs remain high.
Livestock prices are currently strong but cannot be guaranteed.
And the weather is, as usual, doing whatever it wants.
None of this means Scottish farming is doomed.
Quite the opposite.
The record value of Scottish agricultural output shows that there is still a substantial and valuable industry here.
But the farming business of 2030 may look rather different from the farming business of 2020.
And the decisions made during the next year will help determine what survives.
Perhaps the biggest question is not whether Scotland can afford to support its farmers and crofters.
It is whether Scotland can afford not to have a viable farming industry in the north.