8th October 2026
The big pressures on prices right now do not give any comfort to anyone especially buying diesel or heating oil. The combination of several factors are pushing prices again.
Middle East shipping is the biggest immediate risk
Brent crude has moved back above $102 a barrel, with Reuters reporting today that attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz are increasing. The Strait normally carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments, so disruption there adds a large risk premium to prices.
Diesel is in an even tighter market than crude oil
This is important. Diesel isn't simply "crude oil plus a bit of refining". There is currently a shortage of the middle-distillate products from which diesel, heating oil and jet fuel are made.
European diesel futures jumped as much as 8% on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency clarified that the G7's proposed 100-million-barrel release would largely come from stocks already committed for release, rather than representing an additional supply of oil.
That disappointed traders who had expected a bigger intervention.
Russian refineries are another problem
Ukraine has continued attacking Russian oil refineries and associated infrastructure. Ukraine claims that more than half of Russia's refining capacity has been affected, although that figure cannot independently be verified. The IEA has reported a significant reduction in Russian diesel production.
This matters internationally because Russia is a major supplier of refined petroleum products. Taking refining capacity out of the market can tighten diesel supplies even if there is still plenty of crude oil underground.
European diesel inventories are already under pressure
S&P Global reported last month that European physical diesel prices were close to record levels because of supply disruptions, depleted inventories and very strong refining margins.
So the market is starting from an uncomfortable position rather than having large stocks available to absorb another shock.
America has its own supply disruption
A hurricane approaching the US Gulf is causing oil producers to shut some production. Reuters says about 25% of US Gulf oil production and 16% of gas production had been shut as the storm approached. US crude inventories also fell by 3.2 million barrels.
That is another temporary supply squeeze arriving at exactly the wrong time.
And the UK is already feeling it
The latest UK average diesel price is around £2.00 a litre.
The latest figures I found put the UK average at 200.1p per litre, compared with 188.4p a month earlier. That's an increase of almost 12p a litre in one month.
Petrol is around 174.9p, so the extraordinary feature now is the size of the diesel premium.
UK diesel price has risen sharply
Average UK diesel price per litre, latest available weekly points.
The danger isn't necessarily that Brent suddenly goes to $150.
Diesel can become much more expensive even if crude oil only rises moderately, because the refining and distribution system is already tight.
That creates a nasty domino effect:
oil/shipping disruption → higher crude → higher refinery margins → diesel shortage → higher diesel prices → higher haulage, farming, construction and delivery costs → higher food and retail prices.
And there is another reason to watch it. Reuters reported last month that the global diesel shortage could persist into 2027, rather than being simply a short-lived spike.
Today's £2 diesel is a warning rather than necessarily the ceiling.