9th October 2026
For generations, the local pub was part of the fabric of British life. It was somewhere to meet friends, catch up with neighbours, watch the football, celebrate a wedding or simply have a chat at the end of the day.
But that familiar institution is under pressure. People are drinking less alcohol, household budgets are stretched, and the cost of running a pub has risen. No and low-alcohol drinks are becoming more popular, but the bigger question is whether the traditional pub can survive when fewer customers are buying the pints on which its business model was built.
For rural communities in Caithness and Sutherland, this is more than a question about beer sales. A pub can be one of the few places left where people meet without needing a particular reason or an organised activity. If it closes, what takes its place?
People really are drinking less
The change in drinking habits is not simply an impression.
Public Health Scotland's latest alcohol sales figures show that the amount of pure alcohol sold per adult in Scotland fell from 12.7 litres in 2017 to 10.7 litres in 2025, a reduction of around 15%.
The figures also reveal a change in where people buy their alcohol. In 2025, approximately 76% of alcohol sold in Scotland came from shops and supermarkets rather than pubs, restaurants and other licensed premises. The proportion had risen from 73% in 2017.
Meanwhile, the proportion of adults identifying as non-drinkers increased from 12% in 2008 to 20% in 2024.
These figures do not mean that every pub is losing customers. Individual businesses can still do well, and people may visit a pub without drinking alcohol. But the overall direction of travel presents a challenge for an industry that has traditionally depended heavily on selling alcoholic drinks.
Alcohol-free beer is booming, but is it enough?
No- and low-alcohol beer has become a more visible part of the drinks market. The British Beer and Pub Association estimated that around 200 million pints would be consumed in 2025, compared with nearly 170 million the previous year.
That is a substantial increase, but no- and low-alcohol beer still accounts for only a small proportion of the overall beer market.
There are several reasons for its growing popularity. Some people want to improve their health, others are concerned about the cost of drinking, and some simply want to drive home without worrying about alcohol. Younger adults may also have different attitudes towards drinking from previous generations.
For pubs, this trend presents both an opportunity and a problem.
Offering good alcohol-free choices allows pubs to welcome designated drivers, people who do not drink and customers who want to moderate their consumption. These customers may still buy food, meet friends and attend events.
However, a customer drinking one alcohol-free beer may spend less than someone who would previously have bought several pints. Whether that matters to the business depends on the price of the drink, the customer's other purchases and the cost of serving them.
Alcohol-free beer is not necessarily bad news for pubs. It may help them retain customers who would otherwise stay at home. But it cannot automatically replace the income lost if customers drink less overall.
The cost of running a pub has become a major concern
Changing drinking habits are only part of the story. Publicans also have to meet their operating costs.
Wages, employer National Insurance contributions, energy bills, repairs, insurance, food and drink supplies, and property costs all affect the amount left over at the end of the month.
A pint selling for several pounds can look expensive to a customer, but the sale price is not the publican's profit. The business has to pay for the beer, staff, premises, heating, electricity, cleaning and other expenses. VAT and other tax obligations also have to be considered.
The experience of large pub chains illustrates the difficulty. Wetherspoon reported strong like-for-like sales growth during the summer of 2026, yet its annual pre-tax profit fell by 28%, with higher labour, energy and property costs among the pressures it identified.
That is a useful reminder that higher sales do not necessarily mean higher profits.
Smaller independent pubs may have fewer opportunities to spread costs across a large business. A village pub with a limited local population cannot necessarily compensate for higher costs by attracting hundreds of extra customers.
There is also competition from supermarkets and off-licences. Buying drinks to consume at home is often cheaper than drinking in a pub, because the customer is not paying for the premises, staff and service that come with a visit.
When money is tight, customers may not give up drinking altogether. They may simply buy more alcohol from shops and drink it at home.
What happens when the rural pub closes?
This is where the issue becomes particularly important for Caithness and Sutherland.
In a city, a pub that closes may have several other pubs, cafés, restaurants and entertainment venues nearby. In a small village, the nearest alternative may be several miles away.
The local pub can provide more than a place to buy a drink. It can be somewhere for neighbours to meet, visitors to find local information, clubs to organise gatherings and people living alone to have regular social contact.
Its loss may be felt by people who rarely drink alcohol themselves.
A pub can also support the local economy by employing staff, buying from suppliers and giving visitors another reason to spend time in the area. If it closes, some of that spending may disappear from the community.
But it would be wrong to assume that every pub can or should be saved. Some have lost their customer base, some are poorly located, and some buildings need investment that the business cannot afford. Others may be able to survive under different ownership or with a different purpose.
The challenge is to distinguish between a business that has no realistic future and one that could survive with a modest change in how it operates.
Can the pub become more than a place to drink?
Some pubs are already broadening what they offer. Food, coffee, live music, quizzes, sporting events and community activities can attract customers who might not otherwise visit.
A pub that serves meals may attract families and older customers during the day. A good alcohol-free range can make it more welcoming to people who do not drink. Events can give customers a reason to come in even when they are not planning to buy several pints.
But diversification is not a magic solution.
Food requires equipment, storage, preparation and staff. Events take time to organise and may not generate enough income. A village with a small population may not have sufficient demand to support a full restaurant or regular entertainment programme.
The economics still have to work. A pub needs enough customers spending enough money to cover its costs. Goodwill from the community is valuable, but it cannot pay every bill.
One possibility in some communities is a community-owned pub, where local residents invest in the business and help preserve it as a social asset. That approach can give a pub a wider purpose, but it still needs a sustainable trading model and people willing to take on the work.
Is government policy helping or making matters worse?
There is a difficult balance for governments.
Reducing harmful drinking is a legitimate public-health objective. Alcohol-related illness and other harms impose costs on individuals, families and public services. Falling alcohol consumption may therefore bring benefits beyond the drinks industry.
At the same time, pubs employ people, contribute to local economies and provide social spaces. Policies affecting wages, business rates, alcohol duty and other costs can influence whether venues remain viable.
The details matter. Business rates and relief arrangements differ across the UK, so measures announced for pubs in England should not automatically be assumed to apply in Scotland. Scottish businesses face their own property-rating and support arrangements.
The Government also needs to recognise that pubs do not all operate in the same way. A large town-centre venue, a food-led country pub and a small rural bar may have very different financial circumstances.
There is no simple policy that will restore the drinking habits of the past. Nor would that necessarily be desirable. The question is whether businesses can adapt to changing habits without losing the social role that many pubs have played for generations.
Is this the end of the traditional pub?
Perhaps the more accurate description is that the traditional pub is being forced to change.
The old model relied heavily on regular customers buying alcoholic drinks, often several times a week. That model becomes more difficult when people drink less, buy more from supermarkets and have less spare money.
The pub of the future may need to be more of a hospitality and social venue, offering a wider choice of drinks, food and activities. Some will manage that transition. Others will close, particularly where the population is small or the premises need substantial investment.
No- and low-alcohol drinks are part of the story, but they are not the main villain. They may help pubs retain customers who would otherwise stay away. The deeper problem is the combination of falling alcohol consumption, changing habits, competition from home drinking and rising operating costs.
For Caithness and Sutherland, the question is especially important because a pub closure can remove one of the few remaining informal meeting places in a community.
Should we think of a pub simply as another business that must survive on its own merits? Or should we also recognise its value as part of the social infrastructure of a rural area?
There is no single answer. But if communities want their pubs to survive, they will need more than nostalgia. They will need customers, viable businesses and, in some places, a willingness to rethink what the local pub is for.
The traditional pub may not disappear altogether. But the days when selling pints alone could reliably sustain every pub may be drawing to a close.