13th October 2026
Quantum computing could create a new market for one of the world's scarcest materials. Canada has an established production capability, but the United States has its own supplies. Could a little-known nuclear by-product become an important economic and strategic asset?.
The race to develop quantum computers is usually presented as a contest between technology companies, scientists and governments. But behind the headlines lies a less familiar question: where will the materials needed to operate these machines come from?
One of the most interesting is helium-3, an exceptionally rare isotope of helium that could become increasingly valuable as quantum computing develops.
Canada has established itself as an important producer, using technology associated with its heavy-water nuclear reactors. This has raised an intriguing possibility. If demand for helium-3 increases substantially, could Canada gain an economic advantage over its much larger neighbour, the United States?
The answer is potentially yes, although the situation is more complicated than it might first appear.
Why quantum computers need helium-3
Quantum computers work differently from conventional computers. They use quantum bits, or qubits, to carry out certain types of calculations that could eventually transform areas such as materials science, medicine, financial modelling and the development of new technologies.
Some of the leading designs use superconducting circuits that must operate at temperatures extremely close to absolute zero. Special refrigeration systems use a mixture of helium-3 and helium-4 to achieve these extraordinary conditions.
Helium-3 is not simply burned up as the computer operates. It circulates within the refrigeration system, meaning the initial quantity needed for each machine is important, alongside any losses and the ability to recover and reuse the gas.
Nevertheless, a large expansion in quantum computing could tie up substantially more helium-3 in operating equipment. If supply cannot keep pace with demand, the cost and availability of this specialist material could become important considerations for the industry.
There is a qualification. Not every quantum computer uses helium-3, and alternative technologies may reduce dependence on it. The scale of the future market is therefore uncertain.
But the possibility of a supply bottleneck is sufficiently important to attract scientific and commercial attention.
Canada has an unusual advantage
Helium-3 is difficult to obtain in significant quantities. Unlike ordinary helium, it is not something that can simply be extracted from a large conventional gas field.
One route to producing it involves tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen that decays over time into helium-3. This makes the management of tritium stocks and the ability to handle radioactive materials important parts of the supply chain.
Canada's heavy-water nuclear reactors provide an established basis for this process. Ontario Power Generation has developed helium-3 production at its Darlington nuclear station, and Canadian companies have established commercial distribution arrangements.
This is a valuable capability because building a new supply chain for such a specialised material is not straightforward. It requires technical expertise, appropriate facilities, regulatory oversight and access to the underlying material.
Canada is therefore not starting from scratch if the quantum-computing industry requires more helium-3.
However, claims that Canada necessarily controls most of the world's production should be treated cautiously. Public information on global output is limited, and the United States also has a domestic production capability.
America is not entirely dependent on Canada
The United States has its own helium-3 recovery operations associated with its nuclear programmes, including activities at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.
This matters because it limits Canada's ability to dictate terms to American customers.
If Canadian supplies became more expensive or politically difficult to obtain, the United States could seek to increase its own production, improve recovery and recycling, or develop alternative refrigeration systems.
None of these responses would necessarily be immediate or inexpensive. Increasing production of a rare isotope is not like opening another conventional gas well. But the existence of alternatives means Canada would have to compete on reliability, price and the ability to expand output.
There is also a distinction between a shortage of helium-3 and a shortage of the technology needed to produce it. Even if Canada has an advantage today, that position could change as other countries invest in their own capabilities.
The market could become more competitive just as demand begins to rise.
Could helium-3 become a geopolitical bargaining chip?
Scarce resources can give countries influence beyond their direct economic value. This is particularly true when a material is essential to a strategically important industry and there are few immediate substitutes.
If quantum computing becomes central to national security, advanced manufacturing and scientific research, access to helium-3 could attract more attention from governments.
Canada could benefit from long-term supply agreements, investment in additional production capacity and closer partnerships with countries developing quantum technology.
The United States, meanwhile, would have reasons to ensure that its own supply remained secure. That could encourage domestic investment, stockpiling and further cooperation with Canada.
This need not become a trade dispute. Canada and the United States have extensive industrial and scientific connections, and reliable cross-border supply could benefit both countries.
But the wider lesson is clear: a material that attracts little public attention today can become strategically important when a new technology expands.
The countries that establish reliable production early may have an advantage over those that discover too late that they depend on a small number of suppliers.
The real opportunity is to move up the value chain
For Canada, the largest opportunity may not be the sale of helium-3 itself. It may be the wider industry that develops around producing, purifying and using it.
A country can earn revenue by exporting a scarce material. It can potentially gain much more by developing the engineering expertise, equipment, research facilities and advanced manufacturing that depend on it.
That raises an important question for Canadian policymakers. Should the country concentrate on supplying helium-3 to international customers, or should it also seek to attract more quantum-computing research and manufacturing?
The same question applies to other countries with specialist nuclear and scientific capabilities.
Britain, for example, has an interest in maintaining access to important materials for advanced research and developing its own quantum-computing industry. Cooperation with Canadian producers could be useful, but secure supply is only one part of the challenge. Skills, investment, electricity, infrastructure and commercial research are also necessary.
For Scotland, the broader lesson is worth considering. Nuclear expertise and specialist industrial capabilities can have value beyond electricity generation. They can support research, engineering and supply chains serving industries that may look very different from those associated with nuclear power today.
Whether that translates into substantial local employment depends on where the research, manufacturing and supporting businesses are actually located. Producing an important raw material does not automatically mean capturing all the economic benefits that follow.
What could go wrong with the helium-3 opportunity?
There are at least three reasons to avoid assuming that helium-3 will become a guaranteed commercial success.
First, quantum computing may expand more slowly than some forecasts suggest. Technical challenges remain, and expectations about future commercial applications do not always translate into profitable businesses.
Second, even if quantum computing expands rapidly, the industry could adopt designs that require less helium-3 or use different cooling methods. Demand will depend on the technologies that ultimately succeed.
Third, the material can be circulated and reused in refrigeration systems. The total amount required by the industry will depend not only on the number of machines being built but also on the inventory needed for each machine, leakage, recovery and recycling.
These uncertainties make it difficult to predict future prices or determine how much production capacity Canada should build.
There is also a danger in confusing a potentially important market with a guaranteed national windfall. Governments and investors would need evidence of sustained demand before committing substantial resources.
A small isotope with potentially big implications
Helium-3 illustrates how the next generation of technology could create new strategic dependencies. The public debate often focuses on who builds the most advanced computers, but the supply of specialised materials may also influence which countries can develop and operate them.
Canada has established expertise and production capability that could become more valuable if demand rises. The United States has its own supply, resources and ability to respond. Neither country can yet assume how large the eventual market will become.
For Canada, the opportunity is to build on its existing capabilities, secure dependable customers and capture as much of the resulting economic activity as possible.
For other countries, the lesson is to identify these dependencies before shortages emerge rather than after they begin to affect investment and production.
Helium-3 may never become the next oil or natural gas. Its market is much smaller and its applications far more specialised. But if quantum computing fulfils even part of its promise, this rare isotope could become a strategically important resource.
And that is why a material most people have never heard of deserves a place in the debate about the technologies and industries that will shape the future.