17th October 2026
International oil prices have climbed sharply, with Brent crude approaching $110 a barrel, despite President Donald Trump announcing a relaxation of restrictions on Russian oil and gas. The decision could help increase fuel supplies, but renewed fears over disruption in the Middle East are currently dominating the market.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at around $109.86 a barrel on Friday, 16 October, while US West Texas Intermediate crude reached approximately $101.41. The latest rise reflects growing concern that attacks on energy infrastructure and threats to shipping could further disrupt supplies from the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a particular concern. Before the current conflict, roughly a fifth of the world's oil supplies passed through this narrow waterway. Any prolonged interruption would have serious consequences for international energy markets, potentially removing millions of barrels a day from normal trade.
Against this background, Trump's decision to ease some restrictions on Russian energy exports has attracted considerable attention. The move is intended to help increase the availability of fuel and ease pressure on prices. It also represents a change in the approach taken by Washington towards economic measures designed to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
The relaxation could make it easier for Russian oil and diesel to reach international buyers, reducing some of the competition for supplies from other producers. Additional diesel could be particularly valuable to countries facing tight markets, helping to ease pressure on transport and industrial fuel costs.
However, the decision does not mean that every sanction against Russia has been removed. Nor does it guarantee that substantial additional supplies will reach customers immediately. The effect will depend on the precise scope of the measures, the willingness of buyers to increase purchases and the availability of tankers and shipping routes.
There is also a political price to consider. Russia's energy exports provide revenue that can help finance its war against Ukraine. Any relaxation of restrictions therefore raises questions about the balance between reducing energy costs for consumers and maintaining economic pressure on the Russian government.
The latest movements in oil prices illustrate the difficulty facing policymakers. Hopes that restrictions might be eased had offered some encouragement to traders, but renewed concern about attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping has pushed prices higher again. For the moment, the possibility of losing supplies from the Middle East appears more important to the market than the prospect of additional Russian exports.
For Britain, the consequences extend well beyond the price of crude oil. Higher oil prices can feed through into petrol and diesel costs, freight charges, agricultural expenses and the price of goods delivered to shops. If the increase persists, it could add to inflationary pressures and complicate efforts to ease the cost of living.
Scotland's rural communities face particular exposure to higher fuel costs. Farmers, hauliers and businesses dependent on road transport have limited opportunities to avoid diesel price increases. Households relying on heating oil will also be watching developments closely, although domestic heating oil is a separate market and its price does not automatically follow changes in road diesel.
The next few days will be important in determining whether the latest rise proves temporary or marks the beginning of a more prolonged period of expensive energy. Any easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could bring prices down, while further attacks or shipping interruptions could push them higher. The scale of any increase in Russian exports will also matter.
Trump's move may provide some relief to fuel markets, but it cannot by itself resolve the wider supply problem. Oil traders are looking for evidence that additional supplies will actually reach the market and that existing supplies can move safely to their destinations.
For British households and businesses, the uncomfortable reality is that an announcement intended to make fuel cheaper has so far failed to prevent another rise in oil prices. Until the threat to Middle Eastern supplies recedes, hopes of significant and sustained reductions at the pumps or in heating-oil bills may prove premature.