17th October 2026
More Russian oil and diesel could help ease competition for supplies from other producers. However, additional exports will take time to reach buyers, and the effect will depend on the scale of the increase and the ability to transport fuel safely.
There is also a political cost. Russia's energy exports generate revenue that can help support its war against Ukraine. The relaxation of restrictions has therefore revived criticism that the pursuit of cheaper fuel could weaken the economic pressure being applied to Moscow.
For Britain, the consequences extend well beyond petrol prices. Higher oil costs can increase the price of diesel, road transport, food distribution and a wide range of goods. Scottish farmers, hauliers and other businesses dependent on fuel could face another increase in operating costs.
Rural households using heating oil will also be watching developments closely. Heating oil is a separate market from road diesel, and lower crude prices would not necessarily translate immediately into cheaper deliveries. Equally, a sustained increase in crude prices could eventually put further pressure on household heating bills.
The immediate outlook remains uncertain. A reduction in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could bring prices down, while further attacks on energy infrastructure or shipping could push them higher. The amount of additional Russian fuel reaching the market will also influence the balance.
For consumers and businesses, Trump's announcement offers the possibility of some relief, but not a guarantee. Until there is greater confidence in the security of Middle Eastern supplies, the risk of another rise in energy costs remains.