18th October 2026
Easing sanctions may bring more fuel to market, but rising tensions in the Middle East and attacks on energy infrastructure are driving prices higher. Britain’s households and businesses could pay the price.
Donald Trump’s attempt to ease pressure on fuel prices by allowing Russian diesel back into the market is facing an uncomfortable test. Oil prices have risen sharply despite the US president’s efforts to encourage additional supplies, raising questions about whether his latest intervention will achieve its intended result.
On Friday, 16 October, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, settled at $109.86 a barrel, its highest closing level since May. The increase reflected growing concerns about disruption to supplies from the Middle East and damage to Russian energy facilities.
The following day, Trump took another controversial step by waiving key sanctions and tariffs against Russia that were due to take effect under legislation he had signed the previous month. The measures were intended to increase economic pressure on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Trump said the waiver was in the national interest of the United States.
The decisions illustrate the difficult balance facing the White House. Trump wants to keep fuel costs under control for American motorists, farmers and transport businesses, but he also faces pressure over Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine.
Can Russian diesel bring prices down?
Earlier in October, Trump announced a deal under which Russia would supply diesel to American and wider international markets. The proposed deliveries were intended to help relieve shortages and reduce pressure on prices.
The quantities discussed were substantial, but not large enough to transform the global market. Reuters reported that the initial supply of more than 300,000 tonnes would cover only a few days of American demand. Further deliveries were planned, although their timing and scale depended on Russia’s ability to produce and export the fuel.
There is another complication. Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian refineries, potentially limiting the amount of diesel available for export. Shipping restrictions, insurance costs and the availability of suitable tankers also affect how quickly additional supplies can reach buyers.
Allowing Russian fuel to be sold does not automatically mean that more fuel will arrive where it is needed, or that prices will fall significantly.
The Middle East remains the greater immediate concern
The strongest immediate pressure on oil prices is coming from the wider conflict in the Middle East.
Attacks on shipping, concerns about Saudi energy infrastructure and reduced oil flows through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz have heightened fears of further disruption. When traders believe supplies could become harder to obtain, they often bid prices higher before an actual shortage reaches consumers.
This helps explain why announcements about additional Russian diesel have failed to reassure markets fully. Even if more fuel becomes available from Russia, it may not compensate for a significant interruption to supplies from the Gulf.
The market is therefore responding to two competing forces: the prospect of additional Russian supplies and the risk of losing supplies elsewhere.
Is Trump weakening pressure on Putin?
The political consequences could be just as important as the economic ones.
The new American sanctions legislation was designed to make it more difficult for Russia to finance its war against Ukraine. It also provided for penalties against countries purchasing Russian oil and gas.
Trump’s decision to waive key provisions before they took effect has drawn criticism from supporters of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that easing the pressure could benefit Vladimir Putin and undermine efforts to end the war. Russian officials, meanwhile, welcomed the decision.
There is a practical argument for Trump’s approach. If the world faces a shortage of fuel, restricting supplies further could push prices higher and hurt consumers. However, the counterargument is that Russia could gain additional revenue without making meaningful concessions over Ukraine.
There is no guarantee that easing sanctions will produce enough additional fuel to lower prices, nor that the economic benefit to consumers will outweigh the strategic cost.
What does this mean for Britain and Scotland?
For Britain, the consequences could reach well beyond the petrol station.
Higher crude prices can feed through to petrol and diesel costs, although the final price also depends on refining costs, the pound-dollar exchange rate, taxation and distribution margins.
Diesel is particularly important to the economy. Farmers need it to operate machinery, hauliers need it to transport goods, and businesses depend on reliable deliveries. If fuel costs remain elevated, some of the increase will eventually be passed on to customers.
Rural communities in Scotland face particular challenges. Households in Caithness and Sutherland who rely on heating oil have limited protection from international price movements. Those who need vehicles to travel to work, shops and medical appointments may also find it difficult to avoid higher transport costs.
Food prices could come under further pressure if farmers, food processors and delivery companies face higher energy bills. If inflation rises again, the Bank of England may also have less room to reduce interest rates.
None of these effects is automatic or immediate, but a prolonged period of expensive oil would make life more difficult for households and businesses already facing tight budgets.
A difficult winter ahead?
Trump’s latest decisions have not, by themselves, caused oil prices to rise. The more immediate causes are the danger of supply disruption in the Middle East, attacks on energy infrastructure and uncertainty over how much fuel Russia can export.
Nevertheless, his policy exposes a weakness in the assumption that easing sanctions will necessarily bring down prices. Additional supplies can help, but they cannot fully offset a major geopolitical crisis.
The coming weeks will show whether the Russian diesel arrangement delivers meaningful volumes and whether tensions affecting oil production and shipping begin to ease.
For Britain, the important question is not whether Trump’s intervention represents a political victory or defeat. It is whether sufficient oil and diesel can reach world markets at a price that households and businesses can afford.
For the moment, the answer remains uncertain. The danger is that Russia may gain some economic relief while American consumers, British motorists and Scottish rural households continue to face the consequences of expensive energy.