26th October 2026
Oil prices do not always move in the same direction. Recent figures published by OilPrice.com illustrate why looking at Brent crude alone can sometimes give an incomplete picture of what is happening in the international oil market.
While Brent crude has been showing a decline, the OPEC Reference Basket and India's crude oil basket have recorded increases. At first glance, this might appear contradictory, but the three measures track different aspects of the oil market.
Oil Price Today - Brent Crude $114.6
26 February 2026 as the last day before the war began. Brent was around $70–$72 a barrel in late February, with February's monthly average at $70.89.
Understanding the differences helps explain why falling headline oil prices do not necessarily mean that every country is seeing the cost of buying crude oil fall.
Three measures, three different perspectives
Brent crude is one of the world's principal oil-price benchmarks. It is widely followed by traders, energy companies and governments, and its price is particularly important when assessing the wider direction of international oil markets.
However, Brent is not the only reference price used by the industry.
The OPEC Reference Basket combines prices for a selection of crude oils produced by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It provides an indication of the prices being achieved for those grades of oil.
India's crude oil basket has a different purpose. India imports large quantities of oil and uses a benchmark reflecting the crude it buys from international markets. Its calculation combines Brent-related prices with prices for Oman and Dubai crude, which are particularly relevant to Asian buyers.
These benchmarks are related, but they are not interchangeable.
Why can they move in opposite directions?
One important reason is that oil is not a single, uniform product. Different grades command different prices, depending on their quality, availability and suitability for particular refineries.
Location also matters. Brent is closely associated with the Atlantic Basin market, while Oman and Dubai prices are especially important in the Middle East and Asia.
A disruption affecting supplies from the Persian Gulf can therefore have a different impact on Asian crude prices from its effect on Brent futures.
Shipping costs and insurance premiums can add to the difference. When tensions threaten the movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, buyers may face higher costs and greater uncertainty, even if the Brent futures market is temporarily moving lower.
Traders in the futures market may also be reacting to expectations about economic growth, demand, negotiations or a possible easing of geopolitical tensions. Prices for physical cargoes, meanwhile, can reflect immediate supply shortages and the cost of securing delivery.
Consequently, a fall in Brent does not automatically mean that all physical oil is becoming cheaper.
Timing can be just as important
There is another important qualification when comparing the figures published on oil-price websites.
Brent prices are updated frequently during trading, while the OPEC and Indian baskets are calculated from prices observed at particular times. The published figures can also carry different reporting delays.
If one benchmark reflects a recent market movement and another reflects prices from several days earlier, their reported daily changes cannot be treated as a direct comparison of what is happening at precisely the same moment.
This is particularly important when oil markets are volatile. A headline showing Brent falling alongside a rising basket may reflect different pricing periods rather than a fresh divergence between markets.
The figures need to be checked alongside their dates, calculation methods and reporting times before drawing firm conclusions.
What does this mean for Britain?
For British motorists, businesses and households, the price of Brent remains an important indicator, but it is only one part of the picture.
Petrol and diesel prices are also influenced by the cost of refined products, refinery margins, the pound's value against the dollar, distribution costs and fuel duty and VAT.
Heating oil prices depend on the cost of the relevant refined product, local supply and demand, delivery costs and competition between suppliers. They do not necessarily follow Brent crude immediately or by the same percentage.
Shipping and insurance costs can also become increasingly important during international conflicts, adding pressure even when the headline crude price appears to be easing.
This helps explain why consumers may not see an immediate reduction in fuel prices when Brent falls. Equally, a temporary rise in Brent does not guarantee that retail prices will rise by the same amount.
Look beyond the headline price
The contrasting movements in Brent, the OPEC Reference Basket and the Indian basket are a reminder that the international oil market is more complicated than a single daily price suggests.
Brent remains a useful guide to the market's overall direction. The other benchmarks provide additional information about the prices of different crude grades and the costs faced by major oil producers and importers.
However, rising basket prices alongside falling Brent should not, on their own, be taken as proof that a new oil-price surge is under way. The reporting delays and differences in the crude grades being measured must first be considered.
With geopolitical tensions continuing to threaten supplies and transport routes, the important question is whether these differences persist in comparable, up-to-date prices.
For the UK economy, that distinction matters. A sustained rise in the cost of physical crude, refined fuels and shipping could continue to put pressure on businesses and household budgets even if Brent temporarily moves lower.
Note
There is few days delay on the figure shownin the baskets.