26th October 2026
US military preparations in the Middle East and the continuing attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure are creating a dangerous combination for global oil markets. British households and businesses could pay the price.
The prospect of renewed American attacks on Iran, escalating fighting involving the Houthi movement in Yemen, and the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine are bringing together several threats to the world's energy supplies.
Each conflict has its own causes and military objectives. But all three have something in common: energy infrastructure, oil exports and the transport routes used to deliver fuel are increasingly becoming part of the battlefield.
For Britain, which depends on international energy markets, the consequences could be felt at the petrol pump, in the price of heating oil and diesel, and eventually in the cost of food, deliveries and other everyday goods.
American forces prepare for a possible new offensive
The United States is reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East as President Donald Trump considers his next move in the confrontation with Iran.
Reports published in October indicate that thousands of additional American sailors and Marines are being deployed, with a third aircraft carrier strike group potentially bringing substantial additional air power and missile capability into the region.
CNN reported on 25 October that US forces were prepared to launch potentially major operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from Trump. This does not mean an attack has been authorised, but it indicates that military options are being prepared. CNN reporting.
The timing is politically significant. America's midterm elections take place on 3 November, and the White House has said that the US will not attack Iran before the elections. Reports suggest that renewed joint American and Israeli strikes could be considered afterwards.
Higher fuel prices have become a political problem for Trump. However, postponing military action does not remove the risk. It may simply leave markets facing continued uncertainty about what happens next.
The Houthis in Yemen add another dimension. Their attacks on Saudi Arabian targets and the threat to shipping around the Red Sea create further opportunities for the conflict to spread. Britain has already announced that RAF Typhoon fighters will undertake defensive missions to help protect Saudi cities and infrastructure.
A renewed campaign against Iran, a fresh round of attacks on the Houthis, or retaliation against oil installations could all add to the pressure on energy markets.
Ukraine and Russia are fighting an energy war of their own]/b]
While attention is focused on the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine are also attacking energy infrastructure, with consequences extending beyond the immediate battlefield.
Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian electricity networks and energy facilities. These attacks damage power supplies, threaten heating during the colder months and force Ukraine to devote money and resources to repairs.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has increasingly used long-range drones to attack Russian oil refineries, storage facilities and export infrastructure. Kyiv argues that these operations are a response to Russia's invasion and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and that disrupting oil production and exports reduces the revenue available to finance the war.
The economic effects are not always straightforward. Damage to a refinery does not necessarily stop all production, while attacks on an export terminal may have a different effect from damage to a processing plant. The consequences depend on the extent of the damage, alternative routes, spare capacity and the time required for repairs.
Nevertheless, repeated attacks create uncertainty over how much fuel will be available and where it can be delivered.
An attempt by Trump to establish an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has also faltered. On 11 October, he announced that the two countries had agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure. Ukraine subsequently accused Russia of violating the proposed arrangement, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries resumed.
By 15 October, reports described the attempted ceasefire as having collapsed, with attacks continuing on both sides. The Guardian's report.
The result is that the world is dealing with several simultaneous sources of energy disruption rather than one isolated problem.
[b]Why diesel could be particularly vulnerable
It is tempting to concentrate entirely on the price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark used to assess much of the world's oil.
But the price of crude is only part of the story. Oil must also be refined into usable products such as petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and heating oil. If refining capacity or supplies of finished fuel become restricted, those products can rise in price faster than crude itself.
Diesel is particularly important because it powers much of the road freight industry, agricultural machinery, construction equipment and many commercial vehicles. It is also essential to parts of the industrial economy.
The United States has already experienced severe diesel-price pressure. Reuters reported on 20 October that US retail diesel had averaged about $6.32 a gallon amid disruptions associated with the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The US administration has been trying to encourage greater production, ease some restrictions on Russian diesel exports and obtain additional supplies from overseas.
These measures illustrate how difficult it can be to replace lost supplies quickly. Refineries cannot necessarily increase production indefinitely, and restarting idle facilities or expanding capacity takes time.
The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has been particularly important because of its role in international oil and fuel shipments. Restrictions on shipping through the waterway can affect both crude oil and refined products, while increased insurance premiums and freight charges add to the cost of deliveries.
The Houthis' ability to threaten shipping around the Red Sea creates a separate risk. Ships may have to take longer routes, increasing fuel consumption, crew costs and delivery times.
These pressures can reinforce each other. A refinery outage in Russia, a disruption to Middle Eastern exports and a longer shipping route may each be manageable in isolation. Together, they can leave buyers competing for a smaller pool of readily available fuel.
What does this mean for Britain?
The UK does not need to import every barrel of oil directly from an affected country to feel the consequences.
Oil and refined fuels are traded internationally. If supplies become scarce in one region, buyers elsewhere may compete for alternative cargoes. Prices can therefore rise even where physical supplies remain available.
For British motorists, that could mean higher petrol and diesel prices. For households using heating oil, the cost of refilling a tank could rise as international prices, refining costs, freight and distribution expenses increase.
The impact on diesel is especially important for businesses. Hauliers, farmers, construction firms and delivery companies may face higher costs, which can eventually be passed on to customers.
Food prices could also come under renewed pressure. Farming uses diesel for machinery, while food processors, wholesalers and supermarkets depend on transport. Energy-intensive manufacturing faces additional costs, and businesses already struggling with wages, borrowing costs and weak demand may find it harder to absorb another increase.
Scotland has particular reasons to watch these developments. Many rural households depend on private cars because public transport is limited, while homes outside the gas network may rely on heating oil. Longer journeys, delivery distances and dependence on road transport can make rising fuel prices especially difficult for rural communities.
Could prices rise even further?
That depends on whether the conflicts intensify, how much energy infrastructure is damaged and whether shipping through the main international routes can operate reliably.
A renewed US and Israeli offensive against Iran could trigger retaliation against regional targets or shipping. A prolonged disruption around Hormuz would be particularly serious. Further attacks on Russian refineries and export terminals could add to the pressure on supplies of diesel and other refined fuels.
There are countervailing possibilities. A credible ceasefire in Ukraine, a reduction in fighting in the Middle East, the restoration of damaged facilities or increased production elsewhere could ease prices. Governments can also release strategic stocks, although these are temporary buffers rather than a permanent solution to lost production.
Nor does every military escalation automatically produce a sustained price rise. Markets react to expectations as well as actual shortages, and prices can fall if traders believe disruption will be limited or short-lived.
The important distinction is between a temporary price spike and a prolonged shortage that keeps fuel and transport costs high.
An uncomfortable winter outlook
Britain faces these risks at a time when households and businesses are already sensitive to increases in the cost of living.
The danger is not simply that one war might push up oil prices. It is that several conflicts are affecting production, refining, exports and shipping simultaneously, leaving fewer alternatives when something goes wrong.
The effects could extend beyond petrol stations. Higher diesel prices can feed into the cost of delivering goods, while heating oil becomes more expensive for households that have few practical alternatives. If businesses pass on their increased costs, the effects can spread through the economy over subsequent months.
There is no certainty that the worst outcomes will materialise. Diplomacy, restored production and alternative supplies can all make a difference. But the combination of military preparations around Iran, the threat to Red Sea shipping and the continuing attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities gives the world economy several reasons for concern.
For the UK, the lesson is that fuel prices cannot be understood by watching Brent crude alone. The availability of refined products, the condition of export infrastructure, shipping routes and the cost of insurance all matter.
When energy becomes a target in several conflicts at once, the consequences can reach far beyond the countries doing the fighting.