4th November 2026
Donald Trump may have another two years in the White House, but attention is already turning towards the next American presidential election in November 2028.
The midterm elections have changed the political landscape and raised questions about the future direction of both major parties.
For the Republicans, the challenge is deciding who can succeed Trump and retain the support of the political movement he has built. For the Democrats, it is finding a candidate capable of bringing together different factions of the party and winning back voters.
There is no shortage of potential candidates, although nobody has yet secured a party nomination. Some politicians are already making their ambitions fairly obvious, while others are keeping their options open.
The next presidential contest could be one of the most interesting in recent American political history.
The Democrats: a search for new leadership
The Democrats have several possible candidates, but no obvious successor has emerged.
One of the most prominent is Gavin Newsom, Governor of California. He has become one of Trump's most outspoken opponents and has been increasingly active in national politics. He has openly said he is seriously considering a presidential campaign.
Newsom has considerable political experience, although critics may question whether a politician from California can appeal sufficiently to voters in more conservative parts of America.
Another possibility is Kamala Harris, who served as Vice-President under Joe Biden and was the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024. She retains considerable name recognition, but another campaign would inevitably reopen questions about why the Democrats lost the previous election.
Pete Buttigieg, former Secretary of Transportation, is another potential candidate. He previously sought the Democratic nomination in 2020 and has since built a national profile. He has indicated that he is more inclined than not to run again.
There are also several state governors attracting attention.
Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania could be particularly interesting. Pennsylvania is an important swing state, and Shapiro has demonstrated an ability to win support beyond the traditional Democratic electorate.
Andy Beshear of Kentucky is another possibility. He has managed to win elections in a state that generally favours Republicans. His relatively moderate approach could appeal to voters who are tired of political confrontation.
Then there is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, often known as AOC. She represents a younger and more progressive section of the Democratic Party. She has not ruled out a presidential campaign and could attract considerable support among younger voters.
Other names being discussed include Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.
The Democrats therefore have a choice between candidates who might appeal to the political centre and those who believe the party needs to move further towards progressive policies.
That disagreement could become one of the defining issues of their nomination contest.
The Republicans: who inherits Trump's movement?
The Republican succession question is rather different.
Trump has built a political movement around his own personality, his approach to immigration, trade, foreign policy and his criticism of established political institutions.
The challenge for the Republicans is finding someone who can retain that support without simply being a copy of Trump.
The most obvious name is Vice-President JD Vance.
Vance has become an important figure in the administration and is closely associated with Trump's political programme. He is relatively young, having been born in 1984, and could offer the Republicans continuity with a younger generation of leadership.
He is widely regarded as one of the leading potential Republican candidates for 2028.
However, his fortunes are closely connected to the success or failure of the Trump administration. If voters remain unhappy with the economy, immigration policy or foreign affairs, Vance could find himself defending decisions in which he has played a prominent part.
Another important figure is Marco Rubio, currently serving as Secretary of State.
Rubio has considerable foreign-policy experience and previously competed for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. He has indicated that he would support Vance if Vance decides to run, although that does not necessarily remove him from the longer-term political picture.
Trump himself has suggested that Vance and Rubio could make a strong presidential and vice-presidential combination.
Other potential Republican candidates include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Missouri Senator Josh Hawley.
Donald Trump Jr. has also attracted attention as a possible future political figure, although there is no formal presidential campaign from him.
The Republican contest may ultimately revolve around whether the party wants to continue closely following Trump's political approach or gradually return towards a more traditional conservative programme.
A generational change?
One striking feature of the potential candidates is their age.
American politics has been dominated by older politicians for some time. Joe Biden was 81 when he withdrew from the 2024 presidential contest, while Trump was 78 when he won that election.
Several of the possible 2028 candidates are considerably younger.
JD Vance was born in 1984, Pete Buttigieg in 1982 and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 1989. Gavin Newsom was born in 1967 and Marco Rubio in 1971.
This raises an interesting question about whether American voters are ready for a different generation of political leadership.
It is not simply a question of age. Younger candidates may have different views on technology, employment, housing, climate policy, international trade and America's role in the world.
However, younger politicians will still have to demonstrate that they understand the economic concerns of ordinary working families, particularly the cost of housing, healthcare and everyday living.
What will happen to Trump's influence?
Perhaps the biggest question is whether Trump's departure from the White House will mean the end of his political influence.
He has developed a substantial following among Republican voters, and any candidate seeking the party's nomination will have to consider that support.
JD Vance appears particularly well placed to appeal to those who want continuity. Marco Rubio could offer a different combination of traditional Republican experience and association with the current administration.
But the midterm results may also encourage some Republicans to question whether continuing with exactly the same political approach is the best way forward.
For the Democrats, the challenge is equally complicated. Opposing Trump may unite the party temporarily, but winning a presidential election requires a positive programme that appeals to voters who may not necessarily support either political extreme.
The international consequences
The identity of America's next President matters far beyond its own borders.
The United States remains central to international security, trade, finance and energy markets.
Britain, Europe, Canada and other American allies will be watching closely to see whether the next administration continues Trump's approach to tariffs, NATO, Ukraine, China and the Middle East.
A change in leadership could bring a different approach to international trade and diplomatic relations. However, American foreign policy does not necessarily change completely whenever a new President takes office.
Congress, the military, established government institutions and economic interests all influence what an administration can actually achieve.
For Britain, the consequences could be particularly important in areas such as defence spending, trade agreements, energy policy and relations with the European Union.
Two years to decide America's future
The 2028 presidential election is still some distance away. The candidates have not been selected, and much will depend on how the economy performs and how the political situation develops over the next two years.
The Democrats have several potential candidates but need to establish a common direction. The Republicans have a more obvious succession question, with JD Vance and Marco Rubio attracting particular attention.
There is also the possibility that entirely different candidates could emerge.
One thing is certain: Trump's influence on American politics will remain a major factor even after his presidency ends.
The question facing both parties is whether America wants continuity or change.
And for the rest of the world, the answer will matter considerably.