6th November 2026
The war between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly becoming a battle over energy infrastructure, with both countries stepping up attacks on facilities that keep their economies and military operations running.
The latest developments are particularly concerning as Europe approaches another winter. Russia has renewed large-scale attacks on Ukraine's electricity network, while Ukraine has resumed drone strikes against Russian oil refineries. The consequences extend beyond the battlefield, potentially affecting fuel supplies, international oil markets and the cost of energy across Europe.
What is becoming clear is that energy infrastructure is no longer simply part of the background to the conflict. It has become one of its principal targets.
Russia targets Ukraine's electricity supply
On 3 November, Russia launched a substantial wave of missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Russia had launched 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles. Power stations and electricity substations were among the targets, with damage reported across several regions.
Ukraine's largest private electricity producer, DTEK, reported that three of its five thermal power stations had been knocked offline. Electricity outages affected Kyiv and at least six other regions.
Further attacks were reported on 5 November, with damage to industrial and energy facilities.
The timing is significant. Ukraine faces the prospect of another winter in which electricity supplies, heating and essential services could be disrupted. Repairing damaged infrastructure is difficult when facilities can be attacked again before restoration work is completed.
For ordinary households, the consequences can be severe. Electricity is essential not only for lighting and heating but also for water supplies, communications, hospitals and businesses.
Ukraine strikes back at Russian oil refineries
Ukraine has increasingly concentrated its long-range drone attacks on Russia's oil industry.
On 3 November, the Yaroslavl refinery was reportedly struck. Then, on 5 November, another attack was reported at the Ryazan refinery, one of Russia's largest oil-processing facilities.
The Ryazan refinery has a processing capacity of approximately 340,000 barrels of crude oil a day and is an important supplier of fuel to the Moscow region.
These attacks follow a wider Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries, oil storage facilities, pipelines and export infrastructure.
The objective is to reduce Russia's ability to produce and distribute petrol, diesel and other petroleum products, while also damaging an industry that provides substantial revenue to the Russian state.
The effects are already being felt within Russia. Earlier attacks forced refineries to reduce production, contributing to domestic fuel shortages and restrictions on exports.
According to Reuters, Russian refinery processing had recovered significantly during October following a temporary pause in attacks. The renewed strikes now threaten that recovery.
There is an important distinction between hitting a refinery and shutting down all its production. The extent of damage and how quickly equipment can be repaired will the actual effect on supplideterminees.
An attempted energy ceasefire has broken down
One particularly important development is that the latest attacks have followed attempts to establish an energy ceasefire.
A US-brokered arrangement announced in October was intended to reduce attacks on energy infrastructure. Russian refineries subsequently increased production as Ukrainian strikes paused.
However, the renewed attacks suggest that the arrangement has not provided a lasting halt to hostilities.
The situation is complicated by diplomatic efforts to restart peace negotiations, with further US-brokered discussions scheduled for Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November.
There is a fundamental problem. Both sides regard attacks on energy infrastructure as a way of weakening the other economically and militarily. Persuading either to abandon that strategy may prove difficult without a wider political agreement.
Why the rest of Europe should be concerned
The immediate effects of these attacks are concentrated in Russia and Ukraine, but energy markets operate internationally.
Russia remains a major oil producer, even though Western sanctions have changed where much of its oil is sold.
Damage to refineries does not necessarily mean that crude oil production stops. Russia can export more unprocessed crude instead, although its ability to do so depends on available pipelines, ports, tankers and buyers.
However, reduced refinery production can create shortages of diesel and other refined products.
Diesel is particularly important because it powers much of Europe's road transport, agriculture, construction and industrial machinery. Any prolonged disruption to international supplies can add pressure to prices.
There is also a difference between the price of crude oil and the price of the products made from it. Even if crude supplies remain relatively plentiful, shortages of particular refined products can push up diesel and petrol prices.
For European countries, the concern is not necessarily that Russian oil will suddenly disappear from the market. It is that further disruption will make an already complicated international energy system more vulnerable to unexpected shortages and price movements.
What does this mean for Britain and Scotland?
Britain is less directly dependent on Russian oil than it was before the invasion of Ukraine, but that does not insulate consumers from international price movements.
Oil is traded globally. A disruption affecting supplies in one part of the world can influence prices elsewhere, even when the UK obtains its own supplies from different sources.
For Scotland, the implications are particularly relevant to households and businesses dependent on heating oil, diesel and transport.
Rural communities in Caithness and Sutherland have limited alternatives to road transport. Farmers, hauliers, construction companies and households relying on heating oil are all exposed to movements in fuel prices.
There is also a wider electricity issue. Britain is trying to expand renewable generation, strengthen its electricity network and attract energy-intensive industries, including data centres.
As the recent debate over data centre development has demonstrated, electricity security cannot be taken for granted. The war in Ukraine provides a stark example of what happens when essential energy infrastructure becomes a military target.
Britain needs to consider not only how much energy it can generate but also how resilient its supply networks are, how quickly damaged infrastructure can be repaired and whether sufficient alternative capacity exists when supplies are disrupted.
Energy security is about more than the price of oil
There is a tendency to measure energy security by looking at the price of a barrel of oil or the wholesale cost of electricity.
But the events in Ukraine demonstrate that security also depends on physical infrastructure, spare capacity, alternative supplies and the ability to keep essential services operating during emergencies.
A country may have sufficient energy resources on paper but still experience serious problems if the facilities needed to process, transport or distribute them are damaged.
For Britain, this raises questions about the resilience of electricity networks, fuel storage, refining capacity and the supply chains on which the economy depends.
The conflict also illustrates the difficulty of separating energy policy from international politics and national security.
Russia and Ukraine are fighting over territory, but they are also fighting over the ability to keep industries operating, maintain transport and generate the revenue needed to sustain a war.
The latest attacks show that neither side has abandoned energy infrastructure as a target, despite diplomatic efforts to reduce the conflict.
Europe may not be directly involved in the fighting, but it cannot assume that the consequences will remain confined to Eastern Europe.
For households, farmers and businesses already struggling with high energy costs, another period of disruption to international fuel supplies is an unwelcome prospect.
The wider lesson is that energy security is not simply about finding cheaper sources of power. It is about ensuring that the systems on which modern economies depend can withstand disruption, whether that comes from war, extreme weather, technical failure or political instability.