12th November 2026
Britain is facing a demographic challenge which could have profound consequences for its economy, public services, workforce and communities. Fewer babies are being born, women are having children later in life and the average family is becoming smaller.
Scotland is particularly affected. Its fertility rate has fallen to a record low, and deaths have exceeded births for more than a decade. England and Wales are experiencing similar trends.
But there is a bigger question behind the statistics. Have we gradually created a society in which education, career ambitions, financial expectations and changing lifestyles have made having children a less attractive, or increasingly difficult, choice?
It is an uncomfortable question, particularly when governments are simultaneously worrying about an ageing population, future pension costs, labour shortages and the ability to fund public services.
The figures tell an important story
The latest official figures show just how far things have changed.
In Scotland, 45,067 babies were born in 2025, the lowest annual number since records began in 1855. The total fertility rate fell to 1.23 children per woman, also a record low.
In England and Wales, the equivalent fertility rate was 1.39 in 2025, down from 1.41 the previous year.
For a population to replace itself over generations without relying on migration, the fertility rate would need to be approximately 2.1.
Scotland last recorded a fertility rate above that level in 1973. It has now experienced eleven consecutive years in which deaths have exceeded births.
These are not simply the consequences of one difficult economic year. They represent a much longer change in the way people form families and decide whether to have children.
Have we educated ourselves out of having children?
Education has transformed British society. More young people than ever have opportunities to attend university, gain professional qualifications and pursue careers which previous generations could scarcely have imagined.
Women, in particular, have gained greater educational and employment opportunities, financial independence and freedom to make their own decisions about family life.
These are achievements which should not be questioned.
However, there may be an unintended consequence of the expectations now placed on young adults.
For many, the route into adult life involves remaining in education until their early twenties, finding employment, establishing a career, paying off debts, saving for a deposit and eventually securing somewhere affordable to live.
There is also the expectation of enjoying life, travelling, developing relationships and achieving a degree of financial independence before taking on the responsibility of raising children.
By the time all these ambitions have been pursued, someone may be approaching their thirties.
This is not necessarily a conscious decision to avoid having children. It may simply be that starting a family is continually postponed until the circumstances seem right.
Unfortunately, the right circumstances do not always arrive.
Research by the OECD has identified the desire to establish oneself in employment and housing markets as factors contributing to delayed childbearing. It also identifies financial uncertainty, housing costs and changing social attitudes as relevant influences.
The question is whether we have created expectations which are increasingly difficult to reconcile with raising a family.
Career ambitions and the changing meaning of success
There was a time when marriage, buying a home and raising children were widely regarded as central milestones of adult life.
That is no longer necessarily the case.
A successful career, financial independence, travel, personal development and lifestyle choices are now equally important ambitions for many people.
There is nothing wrong with that. People should be able to decide what makes their lives fulfilling.
But raising children involves considerable sacrifices, particularly in the early years.
For women, even with improved maternity arrangements, having children can affect career progression, earnings and opportunities. Childcare costs can consume a substantial proportion of household income, while balancing demanding employment with family responsibilities can be exhausting.
Men also face changing expectations around work, parenting and sharing family responsibilities.
For some couples, the decision may be to have one child rather than two or three. Others may decide that they do not want children at all.
It is important not to assume that everyone who remains childless has made that choice freely. Some people want children but cannot find a suitable partner, afford suitable housing or overcome fertility difficulties.
The distinction between choosing not to have children and being unable to have them is an important one.
Housing and the cost of raising a family
It would be wrong to place all the responsibility on changing attitudes and lifestyles. The economic circumstances facing younger generations are very different from those experienced by many of their parents and grandparents.
Housing is a particularly important factor.
Previous generations could often buy a modest home relatively early in their working lives. Today, high deposits, expensive rents and mortgage commitments can make establishing a family home a major undertaking.
Then come childcare, food, clothing, transport, energy bills and all the other expenses associated with bringing up children.
A couple might both be working and earning reasonable salaries but still find that having a second child would place considerable pressure on their finances.
Governments regularly talk about encouraging economic growth and increasing the birth rate, but the practical costs of raising children remain largely the responsibility of individual families.
There is a contradiction here. We want people to have children, but the financial and practical conditions for doing so are becoming increasingly challenging.
China offers a warning
China provides an interesting comparison, although its history is very different from Britain's.
Its one-child policy, introduced in 1979 and abandoned in 2015, fundamentally changed family structures and expectations. Rapid urbanisation, expensive housing, education costs and demanding working cultures have also contributed to falling birth rates.
Despite subsequently encouraging couples to have more children, China has struggled to reverse the decline.
One important lesson is that changing demographic behaviour may be much easier than reversing it.
Once smaller families become the norm, people adapt their expectations, lifestyles and financial decisions accordingly. Government incentives alone may not be sufficient to change those attitudes.
Britain has never imposed China's restrictions on family size, but there is a similar question about whether changing expectations and economic pressures are becoming embedded in society.
What does this mean for Britain's future?
The consequences extend far beyond maternity wards and primary schools.
Fewer children today mean fewer potential workers and taxpayers in the future. At the same time, people are living longer, increasing the proportion of the population requiring pensions, healthcare and social care.
The NHS, local authorities and businesses will all have to plan for a population with a different age structure.
Migration can help fill gaps in the workforce and support population growth, but it does not remove the underlying question of Britain's long-term demographic balance.
Scotland faces an especially important challenge. In rural communities such as Caithness, fewer young families can mean falling school rolls, difficulties sustaining local businesses and a gradual weakening of community life.
When a community loses its younger population, reversing that decline can be extremely difficult.
Can governments change the direction of travel?
Simply offering financial payments for having babies is unlikely to solve the problem.
If younger adults cannot find affordable housing, struggle with childcare costs or feel that having children will seriously damage their employment prospects, a one-off payment will make relatively little difference.
A more serious approach would involve looking at housing affordability, secure employment, childcare provision, parental leave and the ability of parents to return to work without sacrificing their careers.
It would also mean recognising the importance of family life in economic and social policy.
There is no suggestion that people should abandon their education, careers or personal ambitions. Nor should anyone feel pressured into having children.
But perhaps we need to examine whether society has become so focused on individual achievement and financial success that we have given insufficient consideration to the importance of raising the next generation.
A question we cannot afford to ignore
Britain's falling birth rate is not simply a statistical curiosity. It is a warning about the shape of our future society.
We have created a country offering greater educational opportunities, more career choices and greater personal freedom than previous generations enjoyed. Yet the number of children being born continues to fall.
That raises a difficult question. Have we made having children something people increasingly struggle to fit into the lives they have been encouraged to build?
The answer is unlikely to be education alone. Housing, financial insecurity, childcare, relationships and changing social expectations all play a part.
But if governments are serious about addressing the demographic challenge, they need to look beyond the annual birth statistics and consider the society we have created.
A country needs more than successful businesses, well-qualified graduates and a growing economy. It also needs future generations to sustain its communities, workforce and public services.
Perhaps it is time we gave that part of the national conversation rather more attention.