How Enterprise Agencies Inflate Job Numbers

8th July 2026

Enterprise agencies in Scotland — Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), and the South of Scotland Enterprise regularly publish impressive sounding figures about “jobs created”, “jobs retained”, and “economic impact”. These numbers appear in annual reports, ministerial speeches, and press releases. But anyone living in the Highlands knows the lived reality rarely matches the headlines.

So lets take a look at how these job numbers are inflated, why the system encourages exaggeration, and why rural communities like Caithness and Sutherland see so little benefit despite decades of glowing statistics.

The Numbers Look Precise — But They Aren’t
Enterprise agencies present job figures as if they are hard data. In reality, they are elastic, unverified, and often based on projections rather than actual employment.

How “jobs created” gets inflated
Agencies count jobs planned, not jobs delivered.

They include temporary roles, part‑time hours, and seasonal posts as full jobs.

They count jobs that never materialise because the business plan fails.

They include jobs created by firms that would have expanded anyway, even without public money.

How “jobs retained” gets inflated
Agencies count jobs as “saved” even if they were never at risk.

They accept business claims without evidence.

They keep the numbers in their statistics even if the business collapses later.

They count jobs retained for companies that receive multiple grants, even when the underlying business is failing.

The result is a statistical picture that looks healthy on paper but bears little resemblance to the economic reality in rural Scotland.

Why Agencies Inflate the Numbers
Political pressure to show success
Enterprise agencies must demonstrate impact to government ministers. Big numbers — “500 jobs created”, “300 jobs safeguarded” — make for good headlines.

Budgets must be spent
If agencies don’t allocate their funding, they risk losing future budgets. This encourages support for marginal or failing businesses, which then get counted as job successes.

Businesses self‑report the figures
Agencies rarely audit job claims. They rely on:

business plans,

projections,

verbal statements,

grant applications.

If a company says it will create 20 jobs, those 20 jobs go straight into the statistics — even if only 3 ever appear.

No mechanism to correct inflated claims
Once a job is counted, it stays counted.
If the business collapses, the numbers are not revised.

This is why the Highlands can hear about “hundreds of jobs created” while seeing very little change on the ground.

When Grants Prop Up Failing Businesses
Examples — Norfrost and Hunters of Brora — are textbook cases.

Norfrost (Caithness)
Received multiple rounds of support. Each time:

“jobs created” were announced,

“jobs retained” were claimed,

“future expansion” was promised.

But the company struggled repeatedly and ultimately collapsed.
None of the earlier job claims were removed from the official totals.

Hunters of Brora
Also received repeated grants.
Each time, agencies claimed:

“jobs safeguarded”,

“jobs retained”,

“heritage skills protected”.

Yet the business later failed.
Again, the job numbers stayed in the statistics.

These cases show how public money can be used to prop up ailing businesses, allowing agencies to claim job successes that later evaporate.

Why Rural Scotland Suffers Most
Smaller business base
Fewer firms means fewer genuinely high‑growth opportunities.

Higher failure rates
Rural businesses face:

higher transport costs,

smaller markets,

seasonal demand,

limited investment.

Thin margins
Many rural firms operate close to the edge. Grants may delay closure but rarely transform viability.

Community expectations vs. statistical reality
When agencies claim “hundreds of jobs created”, local people expect visible change.
But the numbers are spread across huge regions and include jobs that:

never existed,

existed briefly,

existed only on paper.

This disconnect fuels justified scepticism.

The Result: A System Built for Headlines, Not Outcomes
Enterprise agencies are not malicious — but the system they operate in rewards announcements, not results.

They count:

projected jobs,

hypothetical jobs,

temporary jobs,

part‑time jobs,

jobs that disappear,

jobs that were never at risk,

jobs in businesses that later collapse.

And they never subtract the failures.

This creates a statistical landscape that flatters the agencies and ministers but misleads the public.

What Honest Reporting Would Look Like
A credible system would require:

counting only jobs actually filled,

independent verification,

separating full‑time from part‑time,

tracking job longevity,

removing failed outcomes from totals,

proving that “retained” jobs were genuinely at risk.

No Scottish enterprise agency currently does this.

The Highland Reality
For communities in Caithness, Sutherland, and the wider Highlands, the truth is simple:

Enterprise‑agency job statistics are inflated, unverified, and often disconnected from what people actually see. Grants frequently support fragile businesses that later fail, yet the job numbers remain in the official totals.

This is why rural Scotland hears about “hundreds of jobs created” while watching long‑term decline in retail, services, and local employment.

 

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